Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:44:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x41dd…6c94 crypto 1755 markets active 1h ago coverage 63d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 63d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$14 (+0%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate83%1458W / 297L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day36.5pace
Fees−$106est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$86
7 days+$67
14 days+$106
30 days+$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% −$486
sports 25% +$149
other 1% +$70
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 143 -4.8% -13.9% 70% 39% -7.4%
≤30d 421 -3.7% -12.9% 77% 35% -9.0%
≤90d 1755 -2.0% -11.3% 83% 39% -10.2%
all 1755 -2.0% -11.3% 83% 39% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.3% 39% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -19.8% 14% -18.8%
15% -27.5% 6% -26.6%
20% -34.6% 3% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$12 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses1458 / 297
Est. fees paid−$106
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1755 / 1755
History coverage63d ⚠
Avg bet$20
Trades / day36.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1755 Trades
no open positions (144 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $50 +$13 +27%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 15 $5 +$1 +11%
Nottingham 2: Tomas Barrios vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 15 $5 −$3 -53%
Dublin: Clement Chidekh vs Colton Smith Jun 15 $5 −$5 -92%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $5 +$3 +53%
Brescia: Alessandra Mazzola vs Luisina Giovannini Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +31%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $50 +$5 +11%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $50 +$9 +18%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $50 +$12 +24%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 2 Tunisia? Jun 15 $50 +$3 +6%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $5 +$1 +14%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $50 +$11 +21%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $10 −$4 -38%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $5 −$4 -71%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $51 +$26 +50%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $5 +$5 +96%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $10 −$8 -80%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $50 +$4 +9%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $50 +$6 +11%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $5 +$5 +93%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $10 +$6 +58%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $50 +$6 +11%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $51 −$10 -20%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $51 +$30 +59%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $51 −$41 -81%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $50 +$3 +7%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $51 +$13 +26%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $50 +$1 +3%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $51 +$12 +23%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 $0 +17%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $5 +$5 +106%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 13 $10 +$4 +36%
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Darja Vidmanova Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 0 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $5 $0 +8%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $5 +$1 +14%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $5 $0 -1%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $5 +$1 +23%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $5 $0 +10%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $5 +$2 +31%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $5 +$2 +30%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $5 +$10 +188%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $50 +$9 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-3.5) SELL Cabo Verde 91¢ $64 49m
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova SELL Liudmila Samsonova 70¢ $6 1h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova BUY Liudmila Samsonova 62¢ $5 1h
Nottingham 2: Tomas Barrios vs Benjamin Bonzi SELL Tomas Barrios 25¢ $2 1h
Dublin: Clement Chidekh vs Colton Smith SELL Clement Chidekh 5¢ $0 1h
Nottingham 2: Tomas Barrios vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Tomas Barrios 51¢ $5 1h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Cabo Verde 71¢ $50 1h
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider SELL Nikola Bartunkova 78¢ $8 2h
Dublin: Clement Chidekh vs Colton Smith BUY Clement Chidekh 57¢ $5 3h
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Nikola Bartunkova 50¢ $5 3h
Brescia: Alessandra Mazzola vs Luisina Giovannini BUY Alessandra Mazzola 44¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 12h
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? SELL No 100¢ $55 13h
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? SELL No 100¢ $59 13h
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? SELL No 100¢ $62 13h
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 2 Tunisia? SELL No 92¢ $53 13h
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 2 Tunisia? BUY No 86¢ $50 14h
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? BUY No 80¢ $50 14h
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? BUY No 84¢ $50 15h
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? BUY No 90¢ $50 15h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Hurricanes 83¢ $6 15h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 72¢ $5 15h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 16¢ $5 17h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Boston Red Sox 23¢ $6 17h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 19¢ $5 17h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? BUY No 82¢ $50 18h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants SELL Chicago Cubs 4¢ $1 20h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Tampa Bay Rays 68¢ $77 20h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Toronto Blue Jays 1¢ $0 20h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 44¢ $51 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records