Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T04:50:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

41
0x41e1…ff99
crypto · 63 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$49 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$54 · open +$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$52
Realized−$54
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses20 / 31
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions12
Markets (closed)51 / 63
History coverage48d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%
Chart Positions 12 History 51 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$6
14 days+$7
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 24¢ 23¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-4%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 49¢ 100¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+104%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 61¢ 58¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+36%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+32%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 24¢ 23¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: Fnatic vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Fnatic 19¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Up 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-05-24? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will CF América win on 2026-04-25? Yes 62¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Down 21¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Mexico vs. Serbia end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $10 +$4 +44%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-04? Jun 08 $5 +$2 +32%
Will Mexico vs. Serbia end in a draw? Jun 05 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $81 +$18 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? May 26 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 26 $5 +$57 +1074%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 26 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 26 $15 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET May 26 $5 +$3 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 26 $30 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET May 25 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET May 25 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET May 19 $5 −$3 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 19 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET May 19 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET May 19 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET May 19 $20 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 17 $5 −$4 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 17 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET May 17 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 17 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 17 $5 +$2 +34%
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by May 15? May 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Will CF América win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $13 −$13 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Apr 25 $5 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Apr 25 $6 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 25 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Apr 25 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Apr 25 $5 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Apr 25 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Apr 25 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Apr 25 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Apr 25 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Apr 25 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Apr 25 $1 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Apr 25 $1 +$2 +227%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Apr 25 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Apr 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Apr 25 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Apr 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 59% −$31
other 34% −$4
sports 5% −$13
politics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 1h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 75¢ $5 8d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 8d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 8d
Will Mexico vs. Serbia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $11 8d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 11d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 11d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 11d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 11d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 11d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 12d
Will Mexico win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 95¢ $1 13d
Will Mexico win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 82¢ $80 13d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 15d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 15d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 15d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 17d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 17d
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? SELL Yes 23¢ $10 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-24.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +38.0% +24.8% 100% 100% +26.5%
≤30d 33 -4.3% -13.4% 45% 39% -10.1%
≤90d 51 -16.7% -24.6% 39% 33% -20.4%
all 51 -16.7% -24.6% 39% 33% -20.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.6% 33% -20.4%
10% -31.8% 25% -28.0%
15% -38.4% 18% -35.0%
20% -44.5% 8% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.31 · official $52.31 (match) · 139 history records