Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:23:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x41e3…256e other 167 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$56 (-0%) realized −$56 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%20W / 146L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$131per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$17
14 days−$29
30 days−$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 28% −$26
politics 27% −$21
sports 21% −$13
crypto 8% −$13
economics 7% −$4
world 3% $0
finance 2% −$2
culture 2% −$4
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -0.9% -10.3% 9% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 72 -0.8% -10.3% 8% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 154 -0.6% -10.0% 10% 0% -9.9%
all 166 -0.5% -10.0% 12% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$56
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses20 / 146
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)166 / 167
History coverage100d
Avg bet$131
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 166 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $61 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $50 −$1 -1%
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 17 $50 −$1 -1%
Will the New Jersey Devils be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champi Jun 17 $63 −$2 -3%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $107 −$1 -1%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $212 −$4 -2%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $116 −$1 -1%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 15 $138 −$1 -1%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 15 $51 −$2 -4%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $43 −$1 -2%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $233 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $56 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $96 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 14 $57 $0 -0%
Will Austria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $28 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $326 −$1 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 13 $42 −$1 -2%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $118 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 12 $58 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 12 $208 $0 +0%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 12 $43 $0 -0%
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $51 $0 -0%
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 10 $54 −$1 -2%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $62 −$1 -2%
Will Paraguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $40 −$1 -3%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $312 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 07 $56 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 06 $58 −$1 -2%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $94 −$1 -1%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $48 $0 -0%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 05 $65 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 05 $44 −$1 -2%
Will Turkiye reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 04 $55 −$2 -4%
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 04 $52 −$1 -3%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 04 $51 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 03 $77 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $200 −$1 -0%
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 03 $52 −$2 -3%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 02 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $165 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $52 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $102 −$1 -1%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $202 −$1 -1%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $322 −$1 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $116 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $92 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 30 $86 $0 -0%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $112 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $50 1h
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $61 1h
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $61 6h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $50 7h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $50 13h
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 96¢ $50 13h
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 97¢ $50 19h
Will the New Jersey Devils be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champi SELL No 95¢ $61 20h
Will the New Jersey Devils be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champi BUY No 98¢ $63 28h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $59 28h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $60 37h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $45 37h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $46 44h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 91¢ $49 45h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 92¢ $50 2d
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $36 2d
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $36 2d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $49 2d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $51 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $42 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $43 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 95¢ $51 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $52 3d
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 95¢ $56 3d
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $57 3d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $56 3d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $56 3d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 95¢ $53 3d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 95¢ $53 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? SELL No 98¢ $57 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.80 · official $49.80 (match) · 687 history records