Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:38:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x41e6…88f4 crypto 31 markets active 3d ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$32 (-7%) realized −$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate48%15W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$37
14 days−$37
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$37
world 2% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -10.6% -19.1% 50% 23% -17.0%
≤30d 30 -10.6% -19.1% 50% 23% -17.0%
≤90d 31 -13.5% -21.7% 48% 23% -18.9%
all 31 -13.5% -21.7% 48% 23% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.7% 23% -18.9%
10% -29.2% 10% -26.7%
15% -36.0% 3% -33.8%
20% -42.3% 3% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses15 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage79d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$4 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $25 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 13 $20 −$5 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$9 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $23 −$9 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 13 $16 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $17 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$5 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $12 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 13 $12 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $33 −$7 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 12 $12 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $42 −$25 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 12 $22 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 12 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $12 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 12 $12 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 12 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 12 $16 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$1 +4%
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? Mar 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 6¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $16 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Down 57¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $16 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 8¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 6¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 138 history records