Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:22:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
41 0x41e6…5927 sports 134 markets active 1h ago coverage 157d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$56 (+13%) realized +$56 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate58%76W / 55L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$1
14 days−$4
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% +$56
other 18% $0
politics 13% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +8.7% -1.7% 25% 25% +3.5%
≤30d 24 -2.0% -11.4% 58% 58% -6.2%
≤90d 59 +16.6% +5.5% 66% 64% +1.5%
all 131 +12.4% +1.7% 58% 56% +8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.7% 56% +8.1%
10% -8.0% 51% -2.3%
15% -16.9% 36% -11.7%
20% -25.1% 23% -20.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +21% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$56
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses76 / 55
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)131 / 134
History coverage157d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 4.5 Over 84¢ 82¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 10.5 Under 76¢ 57¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 55 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $1 +$5 +335%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5 Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 10.5 Jun 09 $1 −$1 -99%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $1 $0 +23%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5 Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5 Jun 06 $1 +$1 +40%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 11.5 Jun 05 $1 −$1 -99%
Sabalenka vs. Shnaider: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 11.5 Jun 03 $1 $0 +29%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5 Jun 02 $1 $0 +42%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5 Jun 01 $1 $0 +36%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 12.5 May 30 $1 $0 +34%
Sierra vs. Cirstea: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 May 29 $1 $0 +24%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 4.5 May 27 $1 −$1 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 10.5 May 27 $2 +$5 +212%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5 May 24 $2 $0 +31%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 4.5 May 23 $1 −$1 -99%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5 May 21 $2 +$1 +34%
Gaubas vs. Silva: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $1 $0 +42%
Manas vs. Krueger: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 May 18 $1 $0 +31%
San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5 May 18 $2 +$1 +40%
Roncadelli vs. Serna: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 May 16 $1 +$5 +456%
Bengaluru 2: Philip Sekulic vs Kriish Tyagi May 15 $1 $0 +1%
Sierra vs. Yastremska: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 May 14 $1 $0 +42%
Wild vs. Avalanche: O/U 7.5 May 14 $1 $0 +40%
Dickerson vs. Kicker: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 May 14 $1 $0 +20%
Gallego vs. Dickerson: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 May 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Gauff vs. Jovic: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 May 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Townsend vs. Jovic: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 May 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Noguchi vs. Cui: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 May 08 $1 $0 +36%
Singh vs. Marrero: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 May 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Ducks vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5 May 07 $1 +$5 +426%
Putintseva vs. Valentova: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 May 06 $1 $0 +44%
Flyers vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5 May 05 $1 $0 +40%
Cui vs. Galarneau: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 May 04 $2 +$1 +38%
Onclin vs. Coulibaly: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 May 02 $1 +$4 +257%
Lightning vs. Canadiens: O/U 7.5 May 02 $1 $0 +24%
LoL: Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB eSports (BO3) - Prime League 1st Divis Apr 30 $1 $0 +14%
Wild vs. Stars: O/U 7.5 Apr 29 $1 $0 +23%
Penguins vs. Flyers: O/U 4.5 Apr 29 $1 −$1 -99%
Avalanche vs. Kings: O/U 7.5 Apr 27 $1 $0 +24%
Madrid Open: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Flavio Cobolli Apr 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Utah: O/U 7.5 Apr 25 $1 $0 +27%
Sabres vs. Bruins: O/U 4.5 Apr 23 $1 −$1 -99%
Utah vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5 Apr 22 $2 $0 +29%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 223.5 Apr 22 $1 +$1 +83%
Stars vs. Wild: O/U 7.5 Apr 22 $1 $0 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 84¢ $1 1h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 26¢ $0 24h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 26¢ $0 24h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 26¢ $0 24h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 26¢ $0 25h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 76¢ $1 46h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 23¢ $0 4d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 23¢ $0 4d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 23¢ $0 4d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 23¢ $0 4d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 80¢ $1 5d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 76¢ $1 5d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 71¢ $1 7d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 81¢ $1 8d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 31¢ $1 9d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 31¢ $0 9d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 31¢ $1 9d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 31¢ $1 9d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 71¢ $1 10d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 77¢ $1 10d
Sabalenka vs. Shnaider: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Over 18¢ $0 13d
Sabalenka vs. Shnaider: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Over 18¢ $0 13d
Sabalenka vs. Shnaider: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Over 18¢ $0 13d
Sabalenka vs. Shnaider: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Over 18¢ $0 13d
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 77¢ $1 13d
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 70¢ $1 15d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 73¢ $1 15d
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 74¢ $1 18d
Sierra vs. Cirstea: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 80¢ $1 18d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 79¢ $1 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.15 · official $3.15 (match) · 249 history records