Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:26:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
41 0x41e8…b994 sports 124 markets active 2d ago coverage 178d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$14,394 (+5%) realized +$17,934 · open −$3,540
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate47%58W / 65L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$2,316per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$421est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$36,036now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$528
14 days+$2,630
30 days+$5,668
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 78% +$17,615
sports 20% −$2,404
other 2% −$1,236
politics 0% +$99
tech 0% −$97
crypto 0% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -31.6% -38.1% 31% 31% -31.2%
≤30d 35 -28.0% -34.9% 40% 34% -5.6%
≤90d 114 -21.3% -28.8% 47% 39% -3.2%
all 123 -13.9% -22.1% 47% 38% -3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.1% 38% -3.1%
10% -29.6% 33% -12.3%
15% -36.4% 28% -20.8%
20% -42.6% 17% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -18% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$585 vs −$253 · ×2.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.06 per $1 lost it wins $2.06
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$36,036
Realized+$17,934
Unrealized−$3,540
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses58 / 65
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$421
Open positions1
Markets (closed)123 / 124
History coverage178d
Avg bet$2,316
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 123 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 88¢ 80¢ $39,576 $36,036 −$3,540 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $798 −$790 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $200 −$197 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $59 −$58 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $183 +$177 +97%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $77 +$201 +262%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $49 −$48 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $56 −$55 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $235 +$72 +31%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $410 +$300 +73%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $87 −$64 -74%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $203 −$203 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $40 −$39 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $42 −$41 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $101 +$40 +40%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 07 $152 +$94 +62%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $508 +$523 +103%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 07 $23,474 +$2,757 +12%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 05 $120 +$80 +67%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $120 +$155 +129%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $41 −$40 -98%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $69 −$68 -99%
Will GamerLegion win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 03 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 03 $36 −$35 -98%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $229 +$114 +50%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $25,833 +$2,070 +8%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 30 $5,621 +$1,404 +25%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 27 $65,347 +$1,460 +2%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? May 25 $502 −$500 -100%
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? May 24 $157 −$150 -95%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 24 $5,487 −$962 -18%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 24 $518 −$262 -51%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner May 17 $310 +$200 +64%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 17 $192 +$119 +62%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner May 16 $141 +$51 +36%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner May 16 $101 +$40 +40%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 16 $25 +$76 +307%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 12 $63 −$61 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Passion UA - Map 2 Winner May 12 $34 +$7 +20%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 11 $5,474 −$5,463 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group May 11 $5,152 +$323 +6%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Passion UA - Map 1 Winner May 11 $15 +$19 +132%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 10 $21,838 +$3,845 +18%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO5) - BLAST Rivals Playoff May 06 $8,119 +$2,197 +27%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 May 03 $483 −$91 -19%
Will Vitality win BLAST Rivals Fort Worth 2026? May 03 $3,896 +$26 +1%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs May 03 $6,808 +$928 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $798 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 26¢ $48 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 55¢ $152 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 32¢ $59 2d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 50¢ $183 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 27¢ $77 3d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 15¢ $49 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 31¢ $56 4d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 76¢ $235 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 57¢ $410 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 8¢ $10 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Team Falcons 6¢ $23 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 22¢ $87 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 78¢ $3,120 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY FUT Esports 25¢ $51 6d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY TYLOO 2¢ $5 8d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY M80 20¢ $20 8d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY M80 11¢ $20 8d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY BIG 11¢ $10 8d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY BIG 21¢ $32 8d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY MIBR 58¢ $203 9d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL FUT Esports 99¢ $1,031 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 90¢ $26,230 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 99¢ $15,887 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 99¢ $117 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 99¢ $556 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 99¢ $124 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 99¢ $67 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 99¢ $1 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 99¢ $6 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36,035.82 · official $36,035.82 (match) · 819 history records