Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:29:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x41eb…5db2 other 252 markets active 0h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$79 (-0%) realized −$79 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%18W / 234L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$220per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$20
14 days−$33
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$46
sports 25% −$17
culture 8% −$10
politics 6% −$7
crypto 5% −$2
economics 5% −$6
world 4% −$2
tech 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 66 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 181 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
all 252 -0.2% -9.7% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$79
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses18 / 234
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)252 / 252
History coverage132d
Avg bet$220
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 252 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $281 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $279 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $621 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $137 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $139 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $60 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 16 $441 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $311 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $400 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $277 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $310 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $215 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $251 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $552 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $904 −$2 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $360 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $337 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $537 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $308 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $222 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $63 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $769 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $293 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $144 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $235 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $305 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $439 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $510 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $130 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $521 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $364 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $286 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $368 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $316 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 08 $368 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $266 −$2 -1%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $584 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 07 $232 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $888 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $483 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $326 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $161 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $535 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $212 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 04 $234 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $142 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $223 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 03 $248 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $221 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $492 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $59 15m
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $59 1h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $59 6h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $59 8h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $59 9h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $59 11h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $59 12h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $59 14h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $59 15h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $59 16h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $59 19h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $60 21h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $60 22h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $60 23h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $60 25h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $60 27h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 99¢ $60 28h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $60 29h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $60 32h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $60 34h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $60 34h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $61 35h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $61 37h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $61 39h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 99¢ $12 39h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $49 40h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $61 41h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $61 43h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $61 44h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $61 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1368 history records