Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:23:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x41f0…e406 other 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$485 (+9%) realized +$485 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%13W / 26L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$138per market
Trades / day25.2pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$53
7 days+$317
14 days+$156
30 days+$156
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% +$252
sports 7% −$44
crypto 4% −$39
tech 0% −$14
world 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -2.5% -11.8% 29% 29% -3.6%
≤30d 39 -6.9% -15.8% 33% 33% -6.9%
≤90d 39 -6.9% -15.8% 33% 33% -6.9%
all 39 -6.9% -15.8% 33% 33% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.8% 33% -6.9%
10% ← realistic here -23.8% 31% -15.8%
15% -31.2% 31% -23.9%
20% -38.0% 23% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -41% → late +25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$144 vs −$66 · ×2.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$485
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses13 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage9d
Avg bet$138
Trades / day25.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $103 +$97 +95%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $103 −$53 -52%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $147 +$780 +531%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Morocco? Jun 19 $518 −$473 -91%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $9 $0 -4%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $518 −$121 -23%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $746 −$178 -24%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $519 +$441 +85%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $311 −$21 -7%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $518 −$228 -44%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $394 +$172 +44%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $10 +$2 +18%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $218 +$181 +83%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$9 -86%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $21 +$25 +119%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $21 +$24 +118%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $42 −$9 -22%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $21 −$8 -38%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -96%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $88 −$85 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -96%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -96%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $73 −$70 -96%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $52 −$35 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12AM ET Jun 14 $22 −$21 -96%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $309 −$9 -3%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 $0 -4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $103 +$99 +97%
SpaceX IPO: Trading Halted for Volatility? Jun 12 $20 −$14 -70%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $256 −$250 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $31 +$26 +86%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$8 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$5 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$9 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2AM ET Jun 11 $12 −$11 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1AM ET Jun 11 $12 −$9 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 11 $22 −$22 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 99¢ $200 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 49¢ $103 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 13¢ $50 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $103 2h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? SELL Yes 99¢ $928 3h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 6h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 6h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 6h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 15¢ $16 6h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 15¢ $104 6h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Morocco? SELL Yes 1¢ $46 6h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 11¢ $518 8h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? SELL Yes 12¢ $8 8h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 8h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 8h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 8h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 8h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? SELL Yes 9¢ $397 28h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 11¢ $518 29h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? SELL Yes 9¢ $569 37h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 40h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 11¢ $726 40h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 18¢ $959 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 9¢ $519 2d
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? SELL Yes 14¢ $289 3d
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 14¢ $311 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 11¢ $249 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 5¢ $41 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 16¢ $518 3d
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes 22¢ $566 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 228 history records