Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:20:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x41f0…8a78 crypto 118 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$277 (-7%) realized −$277 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate53%62W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day28.3pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$175
7 days−$443
14 days−$443
30 days−$443
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$64
sports 12% −$280
other 5% −$99
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 118 +5.7% -4.4% 53% 52% -20.3%
≤30d 118 +5.7% -4.4% 53% 52% -20.3%
≤90d 118 +5.7% -4.4% 53% 52% -20.3%
all 118 +5.7% -4.4% 53% 52% -20.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.4% 52% -20.3%
10% ← realistic here -13.5% 52% -28.0%
15% -21.9% 50% -34.9%
20% -29.5% 48% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$34 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$277
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses62 / 56
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)118 / 118
History coverage7d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day28.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 118 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$31 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$26 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$42 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$39 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$27 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$29 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$20 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $205 −$205 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$18 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$18 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$32 +163%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $18 +$15 +87%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$19 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$19 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$12 +114%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$9 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$15 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$14 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$10 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$13 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$13 +134%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$15 +148%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +122%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$22 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $31 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $31 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $30 40m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $18 50m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 50m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 50m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 50m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $3 50m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 50m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $31 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $32 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $7 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $4 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $31 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $6 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $0 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 339 history records