Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:15:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x41f1…3cc5 other 26 markets active 0h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%1W / 25L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$353per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$5
sports 21% −$4
crypto 21% −$3
politics 17% −$2
tech 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 26 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 26 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$683) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses1 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage90d
Avg bet$353
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 25 $1,334 −$3 -0%
Will Solana Sierra be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 25 $1,212 −$1 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 25 $1,281 −$2 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $55 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $34 $0 -0%
Will Yoon Sang-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial May 21 $27 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior finish in third place in the first ro May 18 $26 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $691 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $683 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $651 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? May 17 $688 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $689 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 16? May 16 $27 $0 +0%
Will Chicago Fire FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 16 $18 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $10 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $48 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 15 $628 −$1 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 15 $667 −$1 -0%
Gemini 3.5 released by July 31? May 15 $4 $0 -2%
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day Apr 01 $103 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Apr 01 $41 $0 -1%
Will Robert Jenrick be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom i Mar 31 $21 $0 -0%
Will Max Homa win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 27 $107 $0 -0%
Will Alabama win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 27 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Progressive Party (PP) win the 2026 South Korean local electi Mar 27 $20 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $63 15m
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $1,331 23m
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $10 31m
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $1,274 38m
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $29 48m
Will Solana Sierra be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? SELL No 100¢ $1,210 57m
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $25 1h
Will Solana Sierra be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY No 100¢ $1,192 1h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $39 1h
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $898 1h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $20 1h
Will Solana Sierra be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY No 100¢ $20 2h
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $380 2h
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1,281 2h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $55 35d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $34 35d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $40 35d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $18 35d
Will Yoon Sang-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial SELL No 100¢ $11 35d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $15 35d
Will Yoon Sang-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial SELL No 100¢ $16 35d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $17 35d
Will Yoon Sang-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial BUY No 100¢ $27 35d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior finish in third place in the first ro SELL No 100¢ $26 38d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $30 38d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior finish in third place in the first ro BUY No 100¢ $26 38d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $30 38d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $47 39d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $650 39d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 85 history records