Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T13:09:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
41 0x41f3…a483 other 24 markets active 2d ago coverage 210d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3,019 (+9%) realized +$3,019 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate58%14W / 10L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$1,385per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$922
7 days+$2,683
14 days+$2,719
30 days+$2,751
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% +$2,857
sports 2% −$25
crypto 0% +$61
economics 0% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -20.3% -27.9% 71% 29% -1.3%
≤30d 17 -47.6% -52.6% 47% 18% -1.9%
≤90d 21 +7.7% -2.6% 52% 24% -1.6%
all 24 +11.8% +1.2% 58% 25% -1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.2% 25% -1.6%
10% -8.5% 12% -11.0%
15% -17.4% 8% -19.6%
20% -25.5% 8% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$740) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +67% → late -43% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$291 vs −$130 · ×2.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.48 per $1 lost it wins $3.48
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

210d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3,019
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses14 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage210d
Avg bet$1,385
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Set 1 Winner: Swiatek vs Navarro Jun 28 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $10,141 +$972 +10%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 26 $754 −$740 -98%
Tunisia leading at halftime? Jun 26 $4,812 +$194 +4%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $9,173 +$1,328 +14%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $466 +$34 +7%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $4,155 +$945 +23%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2,086 +$414 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down on November 28? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on January 2? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 1? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on January 2? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in January? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,700 December 29-January 4? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $337 −$337 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $501 +$26 +5%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 31 $94 +$7 +7%
Will Club Independiente Petrolero win on 2026-05-20? May 21 $462 +$39 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 2? May 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in January? May 19 $10 +$95 +950%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? May 19 $100 +$12 +12%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on January 2? Jan 02 $7 +$8 +119%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $20 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $20 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY No 37¢ $754 2d
Tunisia leading at halftime? BUY No 96¢ $4,812 3d
Set 1 Winner: Swiatek vs Navarro BUY Swiatek 65¢ $51 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 89¢ $1,786 7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 87¢ $437 10d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 93¢ $466 11d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 91¢ $912 11d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 87¢ $1,747 11d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 87¢ $1,743 11d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $337 11d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 86¢ $1,731 11d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 91¢ $4,575 12d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 91¢ $4,562 12d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 86¢ $1,731 12d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 83¢ $1,668 15d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 81¢ $4,073 15d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 81¢ $81 19d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 83¢ $417 19d
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Mirra Andreeva 95¢ $501 23d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 91¢ $91 24d
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 1 Arsenal FC? BUY No 93¢ $94 34d
Will Club Independiente Petrolero win on 2026-05-20? BUY No 92¢ $462 40d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in January? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 174d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in January? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 174d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on January 2? BUY Yes $1 176d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on January 2? SELL No 41¢ $1 176d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on January 2? SELL No 48¢ $7 176d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on January 2? BUY No 30¢ $5 176d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on January 2? SELL Yes 22¢ $7 176d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,700 December 29-January 4? BUY Yes $2 177d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 63 history records