Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:06:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
41 0x41f3…844e finance 302 markets active 0h ago coverage 47d
BOTnot copyable finance specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (57 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$13,202 (+10%) realized +$12,620 · open +$582
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate57%166W / 126L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$416per market
Trades / day56.5pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$2,806now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$890
7 days+$2,539
14 days+$1,623
30 days+$6,373
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 72% +$4,677
other 27% +$5,071
world 1% +$48
politics 0% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (57 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +7.5% -2.7% 66% 49% +0.7%
≤30d 172 +5.1% -4.9% 58% 37% -1.7%
≤90d 292 +3.3% -6.5% 57% 34% -2.6%
all 292 +3.3% -6.5% 57% 34% -2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover56.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.5% 34% -2.6%
10% ← realistic here -15.5% 22% -11.9%
15% -23.7% 12% -20.4%
20% -31.1% 9% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$571) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$109 vs −$70 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.04 per $1 lost it wins $2.04
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$2,806
Realized+$12,620
Unrealized+$582
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses166 / 126
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Open positions10
Markets (closed)292 / 302
History coverage47d
Avg bet$416
Trades / day56.5
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 292 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June? Yes 24¢ 42¢ $431 $749 +$318 (+74%)
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? No 82¢ 82¢ $615 $619 +$4 (+1%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? Yes 16¢ 24¢ $248 $355 +$108 (+44%)
Will Silver (SI) settle at $60-$70 in June? No 56¢ 57¢ $272 $281 +$9 (+3%)
Will Silver (SI) settle at $70-$80 in June? Yes 32¢ 36¢ $177 $198 +$21 (+12%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on June 15? No 87¢ 97¢ $174 $193 +$19 (+11%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in June? Yes 10¢ 17¢ $111 $175 +$64 (+58%)
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $78 in June? Yes 20¢ 26¢ $117 $146 +$30 (+25%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $790 in June? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $57 $88 +$31 (+55%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 15? Up 13¢ 1¢ $24 $1 −$23 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in June? Jun 15 $393 +$140 +36%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,100 (LOW) in June? Jun 15 $322 −$200 -62%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,900 (LOW) in June? Jun 15 $80 +$25 +31%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? Jun 15 $3,550 +$547 +15%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.60 in June? Jun 15 $1 $0 -4%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? Jun 15 $3,152 +$91 +3%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $680 in June? Jun 15 $1,232 +$153 +12%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? Jun 14 $488 +$132 +27%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $690 in June? Jun 13 $373 +$37 +10%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $44 −$44 -99%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? Jun 12 $600 +$176 +29%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in June? Jun 12 $191 +$46 +24%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.80 in June? Jun 12 $448 +$16 +4%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.00 in June? Jun 12 $264 +$16 +6%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on June 12? Jun 12 $261 −$27 -10%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $82 in June? Jun 12 $39 +$7 +19%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 11? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $27 +$100 +375%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 12 $969 +$181 +19%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 11 $201 −$11 -5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? Jun 11 $517 +$29 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? Jun 11 $639 +$163 +26%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $916 +$136 +15%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $720 on June 11? Jun 11 $264 +$53 +20%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 10? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 10? Jun 10 $43 +$15 +36%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 10? Jun 10 $317 −$71 -22%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 10? Jun 10 $745 +$92 +12%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 10? Jun 10 $284 +$15 +5%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $773 +$135 +17%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 10 $629 −$629 -100%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,150 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 10 $22 +$13 +59%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in June? Jun 10 $835 +$237 +28%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $4 $0 +9%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 10? Jun 09 $67 +$9 +14%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 9? Jun 09 $108 −$108 -100%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $1,034 +$543 +52%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $64 in June? Jun 09 $892 +$468 +52%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 9? Jun 09 $106 −$12 -11%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 9? Jun 09 $25 +$5 +21%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $66 in June? Jun 09 $659 +$181 +27%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 9? Jun 09 $103 −$16 -15%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 9? Jun 09 $140 −$5 -3%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 9? Jun 09 $113 +$6 +5%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $276 −$10 -4%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 09 $328 −$86 -26%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid Jun 08 $42 −$1 -1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 8? Jun 08 $8 $0 -5%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $39 +$2 +6%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $745 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 07 $815 −$547 -67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in June? SELL No 91¢ $533 16m
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,100 (LOW) in June? SELL Yes 6¢ $36 17m
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,900 (LOW) in June? SELL No 93¢ $105 17m
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL No 89¢ $742 18m
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.60 in June? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 22m
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? SELL No 61¢ $99 22m
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? SELL No 62¢ $510 23m
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? SELL No 64¢ $805 23m
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June? SELL Yes 43¢ $16 37m
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.60 in June? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $790 in June? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $790 in June? BUY Yes 3¢ $58 1h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June? BUY Yes 39¢ $3 1h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $78 in June? SELL Yes 27¢ $45 1h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? BUY No 82¢ $619 1h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $78 in June? BUY Yes 26¢ $26 1h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $78 in June? SELL Yes 26¢ $71 1h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? BUY Yes 20¢ $22 2h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June? BUY Yes 37¢ $38 2h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $680 in June? SELL No 95¢ $409 3h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? BUY No 66¢ $33 3h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 3h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $680 in June? SELL No 95¢ $18 4h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL No 89¢ $44 6h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL No 89¢ $128 6h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL No 89¢ $59 7h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL No 89¢ $99 7h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL No 89¢ $474 8h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL No 89¢ $89 9h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL No 89¢ $44 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,805.90 · official $2,805.90 (match) · 2815 history records