Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:47:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
41 0x41f7…c4e4 other 75 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 5d only
✗ bot/MM pace (619 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$2,179 (+18%) realized +$2,182 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +102% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +56% what you keep after slip
Net edge+56%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate70%57W / 25L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$165per market
Trades / day618.9pace
Fees−$168est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$125now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% +$2,020
sports 26% +$570
world 2% $0
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (619 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+82.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 82 +102.0% +82.7% 70% 43% +9.7%
≤30d 82 +102.0% +82.7% 70% 43% +9.7%
≤90d 82 +102.0% +82.7% 70% 43% +9.7%
all 82 +102.0% +82.7% 70% 43% +9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover618.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +82.7% 43% +9.7%
10% ← realistic here +65.2% 38% -0.8%
15% +49.3% 32% -10.4%
20% +34.6% 27% -19.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +102% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +105% → late +99% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
25.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$21 · ×2.45 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.82 per $1 lost it wins $5.82
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$125
Realized+$2,182
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses57 / 25
Est. fees paid−$168
Open positions5
Markets (closed)82 / 75
History coverage6d ⚠
Avg bet$165
Trades / day618.9
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $49 $47 −$2 (-3%)
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score in Second Half No 67¢ 66¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-1%)
Colombia vs. Portugal: Portugal 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Over 61¢ 60¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-2%)
Colombia vs. Portugal: Colombia 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Over 49¢ 48¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Colombia vs. Portugal: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Under 20¢ 20¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? Jun 27 $2 −$15 -603%
Hurricanes vs. Flyers Jun 27 $12 −$7 -56%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-04-30? Jun 27 $11 −$24 -214%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-01? Jun 27 $1 $0 -43%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-02? Jun 27 $5 +$14 +300%
Sabres vs. Bruins Jun 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-07? Jun 27 $41 −$31 -75%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 27 $0 +$18 +23797%
Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk win on 2026-04-30? Jun 27 $15 −$9 -57%
Will Villarreal CF vs. Sevilla FC end in a draw? Jun 27 $1 +$3 +534%
76ers vs. Knicks Jun 27 $17 −$66 -379%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $151 +$4 +2%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 26 $13 $0 -3%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $92 −$17 -19%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $230 −$15 -7%
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 26 $12 −$1 -8%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $65 $0 +0%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $103 +$5 +5%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $200 $0 +0%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 26 $100 +$5 +4%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $100 −$10 -10%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $40 +$9 +22%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $100 +$135 +135%
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Jun 25 $200 +$29 +15%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $132 +$80 +61%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $200 +$181 +91%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 25 $287 +$4 +2%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $283 +$11 +4%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $400 −$9 -2%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 25 $100 +$24 +24%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $146 +$74 +50%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $200 +$109 +54%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $101 −$5 -5%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $300 +$3 +1%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 25 $110 +$2 +2%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $270 +$2 +1%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $97 +$84 +87%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $446 +$23 +5%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $300 +$241 +80%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $400 +$132 +33%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $136 +$13 +10%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $405 +$200 +49%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $535 +$11 +2%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 24 $109 +$23 +21%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $117 +$55 +47%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $400 −$6 -2%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 24 $206 −$5 -2%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $200 +$28 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colombia vs. Portugal: Portugal 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 61¢ $25 2h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Colombia 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 49¢ $20 2h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No 67¢ $27 2h
Colombia vs. Portugal: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 20¢ $8 2h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 6h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 5¢ $10 6h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 7h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 5¢ $9 7h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 7h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 7h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 4¢ $9 7h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 7h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 7h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 7h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 7h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 7h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 7h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 7h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 7h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 7h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 7h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 7h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 7h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 7h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 7h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 7h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 7h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 5¢ $9 7h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 7h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $124.67 · official $124.67 (match) · 3500 history records