Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T00:16:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
41 0x41f7…9bf9 sports 165 markets active 1h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,979 (+5%) realized +$1,974 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate52%86W / 78L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$226per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Fees−$690est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$111
7 days+$164
14 days−$1,232
30 days+$973
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$1,355
other 1% +$453
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +3.7% -6.2% 50% 50% -1.6%
≤30d 138 -2.1% -11.4% 50% 49% -6.3%
≤90d 164 -0.2% -9.7% 52% 51% -4.8%
all 164 -0.2% -9.7% 52% 51% -4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 51% -4.8%
10% -18.4% 49% -13.9%
15% -26.3% 47% -22.2%
20% -33.5% 41% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$177 vs −$172 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized+$1,974
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses86 / 78
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$690
Open positions1
Markets (closed)164 / 165
History coverage33d
Avg bet$226
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 164 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Under 56¢ 64¢ $40 $45 +$5 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 67 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $101 +$44 +44%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $71 +$43 +60%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $122 +$146 +120%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 22 $122 −$22 -18%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $102 −$100 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $102 +$142 +140%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $599 +$312 +52%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $208 −$205 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $144 −$142 -99%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $99 +$146 +148%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $304 −$300 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $305 −$300 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $466 −$459 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $102 +$99 +98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $305 −$235 -77%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $102 +$161 +158%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $172 −$170 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $406 +$376 +93%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $103 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $403 +$139 +35%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $153 +$190 +125%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $163 −$160 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $305 −$300 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $404 +$201 +50%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $203 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $203 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $203 +$161 +79%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $506 +$314 +62%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $202 −$200 -99%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $255 −$125 -49%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $265 +$354 +134%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $298 −$294 -99%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $307 −$246 -80%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $711 +$220 +31%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $152 −$150 -99%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $203 +$141 +69%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $498 +$271 +54%
Dallas Wings vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 06 $153 −$150 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $356 −$150 -42%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5 Jun 06 $304 −$37 -12%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $102 +$214 +210%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $153 +$98 +64%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $122 −$120 -98%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG - Map 1 Winner Jun 05 $112 −$38 -34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $41 58m
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 69¢ $101 9h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 61¢ $114 19h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $71 20h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 88¢ $268 22h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 39¢ $122 24h
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL France 48¢ $99 26h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 57¢ $122 27h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $102 33h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $102 2d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla SELL Leviatán Esports 98¢ $244 2d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 40¢ $102 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $912 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 65¢ $599 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 52¢ $208 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $144 6d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 47¢ $102 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 40¢ $99 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 55¢ $304 9d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 41¢ $305 10d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Monte 51¢ $466 11d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 100¢ $200 11d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 11¢ $70 11d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 46¢ $305 11d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 66¢ $202 11d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 50¢ $102 11d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 52¢ $172 11d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $102 12d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 51¢ $406 12d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 15¢ $103 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.36 · official $56.79 · 335 history records