Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:51:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

41 0x41f9…02fd other 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL −$424 (-13%) realized −$358 · open −$66

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip

Net edge-32%after slip

Net WR23%break-even

Win rate23%6W / 20L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$87per market

Trades / day7.2pace

Fees−$5est.

Kalshi-fit27%portable

Net worth$656now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +23%

net ROI/market (all)-29.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	25	-19.0%	-26.7%	24%	24%	+8.2%
≤30d	26	-22.1%	-29.5%	23%	23%	-26.2%
≤90d	26	-22.1%	-29.5%	23%	23%	-26.2%
all	26	-22.1%	-29.5%	23%	23%	-26.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover7.2 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-29.5%	23%	-26.2%
10%	-36.3%	23%	-33.3%
15%	-42.4%	23%	-39.7%
20%	-48.1%	19%	-45.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 35% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -22% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -9% → late -35% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$109 vs −$46 · ×2.35 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.71 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage

Net worth$656

Realized−$358

Unrealized−$66

Win rate (resolved)23%

Wins / losses6 / 20

Est. fees paid−$5

Open positions5

Markets (closed)26 / 37

History coverage7d

Avg bet$87

Trades / day7.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 26 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	20¢	20¢	$500	$499	−$1 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	16¢	14¢	$150	$136	−$14 (-9%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	13¢	13¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	7¢	7¢	$10	$9	−$1 (-8%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	2¢	0¢	$52	$1	−$51 (-97%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$202	+$97	+48%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire?	Jun 20	$5	−$4	-70%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire?	Jun 20	$5	−$5	-98%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire?	Jun 20	$10	−$4	-37%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden?	Jun 20	$89	−$87	-97%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia?	Jun 20	$10	−$10	-100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1	Jun 20	$61	+$117	+192%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-	Jun 19	$25	+$26	+103%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia?	Jun 19	$10	−$2	-19%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia?	Jun 19	$10	−$10	-97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	Jun 18	$10	−$10	-98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	Jun 18	$41	−$31	-76%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5	Jun 18	$7	−$7	-99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$7	$0	-5%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	Jun 18	$9	−$2	-21%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$10	−$1	-13%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa?	Jun 18	$26	−$15	-57%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5	Jun 15	$50	−$50	-100%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5)	Jun 15	$51	−$50	-98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$51	+$54	+104%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5	Jun 15	$5	−$5	-97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5	Jun 15	$151	−$151	-100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$102	+$231	+226%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	Jun 15	$51	+$127	+250%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$479	−$470	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	1¢	$12	1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	3¢	$41	1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND	BUY	43¢	$203	8h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	20¢	$512	8h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire?	SELL Yes	2¢	$2	21h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire?	BUY Yes	13¢	$5	21h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire?	BUY Yes	6¢	$5	21h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire?	SELL Yes	6¢	$6	21h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire?	BUY Yes	9¢	$10	21h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	67¢	$202	21h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	7¢	$10	24h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	13¢	$10	24h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden?	BUY Yes	12¢	$79	25h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden?	BUY Yes	12¢	$10	26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND	BUY	38¢	$25	27h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? AND	BUY	33¢	$102	28h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-	SELL	75¢	$52	43h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia?	SELL Yes	6¢	$8	2d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? AND Will Brazil win on	BUY	6¢	$21	2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1	BUY	34¢	$61	2d
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia?	BUY Yes	12¢	$10	2d
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia?	BUY Yes	7¢	$10	2d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia?	BUY Yes	12¢	$10	2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-	BUY	36¢	$25	2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	BUY Yes	35¢	$10	2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	SELL Yes	3¢	$10	2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	67¢	$7	2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	49¢	$7	2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	50¢	$7	2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	SELL Yes	10¢	$7	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $655.70 · official $855.70 · 63 history records