Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:57:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
41 0x41f9…dd2b crypto 780 markets active 2h ago coverage 133d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 133d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$10,222 (+9%) realized +$10,223 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate50%421W / 421L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$151per market
Trades / day22.5pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,396
7 days−$3,166
14 days−$1,372
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% +$5,128
other 15% +$5,234
tech 7% +$337
sports 1% −$1,031
weather 0% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 -66.3% -69.5% 12% 10% -37.2%
≤30d 244 -33.7% -40.0% 36% 30% -9.6%
≤90d 718 -8.3% -17.0% 49% 41% -3.4%
all 842 -7.8% -16.6% 50% 41% -3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.6% 41% -3.0%
10% ← realistic here -24.6% 34% -12.2%
15% -31.9% 29% -20.7%
20% -38.6% 22% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$63 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$10,223
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses421 / 421
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)842 / 780
History coverage133d ⚠
Avg bet$151
Trades / day22.5
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 842 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 369 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 8, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 10, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 9, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 7, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Rockets vs. Mavericks Jun 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $17 −$15 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 5, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 19 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 19 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 9, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $136 −$136 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 9, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 10, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 19 $1 +$6 +613%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 6, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 7, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 7, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 19 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 7, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 7, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 9, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 5, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 6, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 9, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 9, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Heat vs. Magic Jun 19 $2 +$13 +650%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 10, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 19 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 10, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 9, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 6, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 7, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 8, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 9, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 19 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 5, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 8¢ $82 28h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 16¢ $82 29h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 16¢ $82 29h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 28¢ $199 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $82 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 11¢ $82 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $677 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,171 3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $225 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $640 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $690 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $640 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $1,066 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $1,014 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $11 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $504 5d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $499 5d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $514 6d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 3¢ $31 6d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 14¢ $82 7d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 18¢ $111 7d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $6 7d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $223 7d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $51 7d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 7d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $132 7d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 7d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.75 · official $28.75 (match) · 3500 history records