Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T04:29:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

41
0x41ff…572c
sports · 136 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$810 +8%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$834 · open −$24
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$746
Realized+$834
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses92 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$54
Open positions6
Markets (closed)130 / 136
History coverage60d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 6 History 130 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$3
14 days+$7
30 days+$489
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $600 $615 +$15 (+2%)
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 69¢ 48¢ $100 $70 −$30 (-30%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Team Falcons 78¢ 78¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 71¢ 70¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 35¢ 8¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-76%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $25 +$14 +57%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $10 +$9 +93%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $10 +$12 +114%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $20 +$8 +40%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 03 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $20 +$12 +60%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Alliance (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playo May 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Heroic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 28 $20 +$10 +50%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Sharks (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $351 +$28 +8%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $603 +$107 +18%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $803 +$149 +19%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs paiN (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B May 22 $8 +$10 +129%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $607 +$52 +8%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Liquid (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B May 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B May 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs paiN (BO3) - CS Asia Championships May 21 $20 +$12 +60%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $251 +$33 +13%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs TYLOO (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 20 $50 +$17 +33%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs PARIVISION (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group May 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 20 $15 +$2 +10%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs M80 (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 20 $116 −$116 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 20 $8 +$1 +17%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs TYLOO (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs NIP (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group B May 20 $5 +$5 +97%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs MIBR (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group B May 20 $5 +$6 +109%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - CS Asia Championship May 20 $15 +$4 +29%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs NRG (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 20 $50 +$18 +36%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Liquid (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Gro May 20 $10 +$3 +34%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 18 $20 +$7 +32%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 18 $30 +$19 +61%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 16 $61 +$28 +46%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 16 $704 +$91 +13%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $300 +$9 +3%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 16 $10 −$3 -33%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 15 $5 $0 +4%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $152 −$29 -19%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $202 +$92 +46%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs Astralis (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 14 $15 +$8 +50%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner May 13 $15 +$3 +20%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 13 $10 $0 +4%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 13 $101 +$26 +26%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 13 $102 +$40 +39%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group May 12 $100 −$50 -50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 86% +$809
other 13% +$31
politics 1% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 78¢ $20 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 78¢ $20 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 71¢ $10 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 98¢ $200 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 97¢ $400 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 63¢ $10 47h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 46¢ $10 47h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY BetBoom Team 51¢ $10 47h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 45¢ $20 47h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 63¢ $15 47h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 68¢ $20 2d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 4d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL BetBoom Team 88¢ $28 4d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 62¢ $20 4d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY B8 62¢ $20 9d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY GamerLegion 26¢ $8 9d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 41¢ $8 15d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Heroic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs BUY 9z 66¢ $20 15d
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Alliance (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playo BUY 3DMAX 45¢ $10 15d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Sharks (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs BUY 9z 45¢ $10 16d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 97¢ $100 19d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 96¢ $100 19d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 88¢ $50 19d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 87¢ $100 19d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Knicks 93¢ $100 20d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Knicks 92¢ $100 20d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Knicks 93¢ $100 20d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Knicks 83¢ $50 20d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Knicks 87¢ $100 20d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Knicks 85¢ $50 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +17.3% +6.2% 67% 67% -7.0%
≤30d 43 -2.6% -11.9% 65% 53% +0.0%
≤90d 130 +1.0% -8.6% 71% 53% -1.4%
all 130 +1.0% -8.6% 71% 53% -1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 53% -1.4%
10% -17.4% 39% -10.8%
15% -25.3% 26% -19.4%
20% -32.7% 17% -27.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $746.02 · official $746.02 (match) · 354 history records