trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +0.4% | -9.2% | 50% | 0% | -8.9% |
| ≤30d | 11 | +0.4% | -9.2% | 45% | 0% | -9.1% |
| ≤90d | 11 | +0.4% | -9.2% | 45% | 0% | -9.1% |
| all | 26 | +1.8% | -7.9% | 54% | 4% | -9.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -7.9% | 4% | -9.0% |
| 10% | -16.7% | 4% | -17.7% |
| 15% | -24.8% | 0% | -25.7% |
| 20% | -32.1% | 0% | -33.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 64¢ | 64¢ | $40 | $41 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | No | 40¢ | 58¢ | $0 | $0 | +$0 (+46%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | Jun 19 | $16 | $0 | +1% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | Jun 18 | $50 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? | Jun 18 | $26 | +$1 | +4% |
| Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 | Jun 18 | $13 | $0 | -3% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Jun 08 | $6 | $0 | +3% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 07 | $40 | −$1 | -1% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 06 | $20 | $0 | -1% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | Jun 06 | $85 | +$1 | +2% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Jun 05 | $43 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 04 | $54 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | May 28 | $44 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30? | Dec 11 | $11 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Jul 16 | $1 | $0 | +10% |
| Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? | Jul 16 | $15 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | May 30 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Mario Grech be the next pope? | May 09 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Titans draft Travis Hunter in 2025? | Apr 17 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Raymond Burke be the next pope? | Apr 17 | $11 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York | Apr 15 | $15 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Kylian Mbappe be the top Champions League scorer? | Apr 14 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Eric Adams win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City? | Apr 14 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Apr 13 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Arsenal wins the Premier League? | Apr 12 | $14 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the New York Rangers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Mar 28 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in NYC be 46°F or below on March 24? | Mar 25 | $15 | $0 | +1% |
| Ripple above $2.30 on March 21? | Mar 22 | $14 | $0 | +3% |