Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:17:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x4201…007f crypto 491 markets active 1h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$480 (-4%) realized −$42 · open −$438
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate59%289W / 200L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day20.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$89now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$255
7 days+$255
14 days−$49
30 days−$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$773
other 10% −$422
weather 5% −$206
sports 2% +$82
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -23.3% -30.6% 48% 43% +7.4%
≤30d 27 -18.6% -26.3% 48% 41% -12.0%
≤90d 489 -6.1% -15.0% 59% 44% -17.5%
all 489 -6.1% -15.0% 59% 44% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.0% 44% -17.5%
10% ← realistic here -23.2% 29% -25.4%
15% -30.6% 21% -32.6%
20% -37.4% 15% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$16 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$89
Realized−$42
Unrealized−$438
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses289 / 200
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)489 / 491
History coverage84d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day20.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 489 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 50¢ 100¢ $40 $80 +$40 (+100%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $487 $9 −$478 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +93%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $45 +$11 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $18 −$6 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $317 +$13 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $267 +$112 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $37 +$22 +59%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $152 +$44 +29%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $331 +$65 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $65 +$60 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$12 +75%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $309 −$309 -100%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? Jun 03 $4 $0 -9%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 03 $6 +$6 +97%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 28 $2 $0 -23%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian May 25 $2 $0 +7%
Will Wolves finish in last place in the 2025-26 English Premier League May 24 $19 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 10 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 06 $16 +$11 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Apr 25 $11 −$4 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Apr 25 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Apr 24 $17 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Apr 24 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Apr 24 $17 +$9 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Apr 24 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Apr 24 $67 −$67 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Apr 24 $34 +$44 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Apr 24 $50 −$29 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Apr 24 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Apr 24 $20 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Apr 24 $80 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Apr 24 $36 +$10 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Apr 24 $81 +$25 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Apr 24 $32 +$12 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Apr 24 $19 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Apr 24 $20 −$6 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Apr 24 $17 +$10 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Apr 24 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Apr 24 $21 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Apr 24 $10 +$27 +272%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 35m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 35m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $17 38m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 42m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 43m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 43m
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 47m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $41 48m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $46 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $20 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 43¢ $41 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 43¢ $31 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $61 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $112 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 36¢ $31 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 35¢ $110 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $26 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $20 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 40¢ $5 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 32¢ $31 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 33¢ $325 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $7 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $89.35 · official $89.35 (match) · 2209 history records