Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:58:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x4203…0cb4 politics 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 174d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$26 (-0%) realized −$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%3W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$190per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 27% −$3
sports 27% −$3
other 21% $0
crypto 9% $0
economics 8% −$22
culture 4% $0
tech 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.7% -10.2% 50% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 4 -0.4% -9.9% 25% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 12 -0.2% -9.7% 8% 0% -9.6%
all 29 -0.4% -9.9% 10% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -10.0%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 93% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

174d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses3 / 26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage174d
Avg bet$190
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $103 −$2 -2%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $103 $0 +0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $103 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $103 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $103 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 14 $103 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $103 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 07 $103 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 05 $103 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 17 $105 $0 +0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 15 $105 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 30 $234 $0 +0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Mar 20 $234 $0 +0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 16 $234 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? Mar 14 $234 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 13 $234 $0 +0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 11 $234 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 07 $233 +$1 +0%
Will Frankenstein win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 02 $233 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Feb 08 $255 −$22 -8%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 30 $258 −$3 -1%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 30 $258 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 29 $248 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Klára Dobrev? Jan 06 $252 $0 +0%
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 03 $247 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 03 $249 $0 -0%
Will PSV win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 02 $250 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 01 $252 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 30 $246 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $102 1h
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $103 15h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $103 5d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $103 6d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $103 7d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $103 8d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $103 23d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $103 23d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $103 31d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $103 32d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $103 35d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $103 36d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $103 39d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $54 39d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $49 39d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $103 43d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $103 43d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $103 44d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $103 45d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $105 62d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $105 63d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $105 65d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $105 65d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 100¢ $234 81d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $234 81d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $234 91d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $234 91d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $234 95d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $234 95d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $234 96d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 75 history records