Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:06:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x4204…165a crypto 651 markets active 0h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$786 (+2%) realized +$787 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate60%388W / 262L
Whale WR31%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day34.1pace
Fees−$68est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$122now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$674
7 days+$148
14 days+$60
30 days−$810
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% −$551
weather 13% +$27
sports 4% −$166
other 3% +$19
economics 1% −$17
world 0% +$16
politics 0% −$35
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +3.5% -6.4% 66% 57% -8.8%
≤30d 585 -7.7% -16.5% 60% 51% -11.2%
≤90d 650 -5.5% -14.5% 60% 50% -10.9%
all 650 -5.5% -14.5% 60% 50% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.5% 50% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -22.7% 31% -19.4%
15% -30.2% 18% -27.2%
20% -37.0% 11% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 31% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$35 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$122
Realized+$787
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses388 / 262
Whale WR (big bets)31%
Est. fees paid−$68
Open positions1
Markets (closed)650 / 651
History coverage78d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day34.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 650 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Down 80¢ 80¢ $123 $122 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 92 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $314 +$142 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $1,087 −$232 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $312 −$132 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $155 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $6,526 −$554 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $1,073 −$39 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $439 +$93 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $831 −$121 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $815 +$131 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $956 −$271 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $882 +$40 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $708 +$116 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $1,047 −$13 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $133 +$162 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $224 +$103 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $57 −$20 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $650 +$1,208 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $60 −$59 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $517 −$250 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9AM ET Jun 12 $50 +$15 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 12 $246 −$239 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2PM ET Jun 11 $7 −$7 -95%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $87 −$86 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 11 $24 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 11 $142 +$37 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 9? Jun 10 $50 +$26 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 9? Jun 09 $57 +$7 +12%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 11°C on June 9? Jun 09 $27 +$6 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 9? Jun 09 $29 +$13 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $34 +$16 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 09 $76 +$11 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on June 8? Jun 09 $99 +$13 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 8? Jun 09 $97 +$18 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 09 $14 +$4 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 8? Jun 09 $35 +$3 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 8? Jun 09 $31 +$21 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $33 −$33 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 8? Jun 08 $41 +$4 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $24 +$2 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $95 +$14 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 9? Jun 08 $50 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 08 $55 +$10 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 7? Jun 08 $16 +$2 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 7? Jun 08 $38 +$26 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 08 $55 +$15 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 7? Jun 08 $53 +$5 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 7? Jun 08 $47 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 08 $50 +$12 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 08 $44 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 08 $16 +$5 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $125 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $277 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $79 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $110 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $100 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $12 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $22 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $22 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? SELL Down 6¢ $110 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 7¢ $160 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? SELL Down 5¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 0¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $159 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $21 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $15 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 38¢ $124 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $122.07 · official $122.07 (match) · 3142 history records