Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:30:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x4206…f874 sports 187 markets active 0h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$389 (-6%) realized −$380 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate59%109W / 76L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day11.2pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$138now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days−$131
14 days−$188
30 days−$413
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$379
other 4% −$18
crypto 1% −$15
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 84 +0.1% -9.5% 63% 61% -13.3%
≤30d 185 -10.7% -19.2% 59% 56% -15.9%
≤90d 185 -10.7% -19.2% 59% 56% -15.9%
all 185 -10.7% -19.2% 59% 56% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 56% -15.9%
10% -27.0% 42% -24.0%
15% -34.0% 29% -31.3%
20% -40.5% 18% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$21 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$138
Realized−$380
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses109 / 76
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions2
Markets (closed)185 / 187
History coverage20d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day11.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 185 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Over 92¢ 90¢ $142 $138 −$4 (-3%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Yes 55¢ 2¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 73 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $133 +$10 +7%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $121 −$120 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 +$5 +48%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $150 +$14 +10%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $15 +$3 +23%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $5 +$3 +52%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $30 +$6 +18%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $100 +$15 +15%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $15 +$4 +29%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $150 +$18 +12%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $195 +$21 +11%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $5 +$6 +114%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $5 +$3 +52%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $5 +$7 +134%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $133 +$42 +32%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $125 +$13 +11%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $7 +$2 +31%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $5 +$4 +86%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $108 +$23 +21%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 +$3 +50%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $101 +$31 +30%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $8 +$4 +43%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $291 −$290 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 +$7 +67%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $25 +$14 +54%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $20 +$6 +27%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $50 +$16 +32%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $5 +$6 +124%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $50 +$5 +11%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 +$3 +55%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $15 +$10 +64%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $15 +$4 +26%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $30 +$3 +11%
Will RS Berkane win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$30 +58%
Scotland to score first vs. Haiti? Jun 14 $101 +$35 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 92¢ $142 15m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $143 15m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $133 23m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 81¢ $101 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $5 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $15 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $165 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 91¢ $150 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $10 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 72¢ $20 3h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 53¢ $5 7h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $5 10h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $15 10h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 81¢ $15 15h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 86¢ $50 21h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 88¢ $50 21h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $168 21h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 89¢ $150 21h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 BUY Over 84¢ $30 21h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 77¢ $15 22h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 65¢ $5 23h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $195 25h
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Tallon Griekspoor 57¢ $5 32h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Adrian Mannarino 46¢ $5 32h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 76¢ $128 42h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $5 42h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 42h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $138 42h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $125 43h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $5 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $138.37 · official $138.37 (match) · 323 history records