Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:18:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
42 0x4206…dc54 other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$39 (-23%) realized −$38 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -13.8% -22.0% 67% 67% -38.7%
≤30d 3 -13.8% -22.0% 67% 67% -38.7%
≤90d 3 -13.8% -22.0% 67% 67% -38.7%
all 3 -13.8% -22.0% 67% 67% -38.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.0% 67% -38.7%
10% -29.5% 33% -44.6%
15% -36.3% 33% -49.9%
20% -42.6% 0% -54.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$57 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$38
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage5d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 90¢ 88¢ $45 $44 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $42 +$5 +11%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $57 −$57 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $25 +$12 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $45 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $42 41h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $57 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $25 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.29 · official $44.29 (match) · 7 history records