Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:07:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x4207…b81b politics 48 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 7d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (433 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$296,265 (+62%) realized +$393,961 · open −$97,696
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -60% what you keep after slip
Net edge-60%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate28%18W / 46L
Whale WR46%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9,982per market
Trades / day433.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$13,136now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
politics 77% −$131,381
other 18% −$98,195
economics 4% −$4,449
world 1% +$117
sports 0% +$37
tech 0% +$12
finance 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (433 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-48.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 -45.4% -50.6% 27% 13% -46.4%
≤30d 64 -42.7% -48.1% 28% 14% -46.3%
≤90d 64 -42.7% -48.1% 28% 14% -46.3%
all 64 -42.7% -48.1% 28% 14% -46.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover433.1 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -48.1% 14% -46.3%
10% -53.1% 11% -51.5%
15% ← realistic here -57.6% 6% -56.2%
20% -61.8% 5% -60.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 46% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -9% → late -76% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
40.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$315 vs −$3,341 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$13,136
Realized+$393,961
Unrealized−$97,696
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses18 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)46%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions72
Markets (closed)64 / 48
History coverage8d ⚠
Avg bet$9,982
Trades / day433.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 72 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 87¢ 88¢ $3,236 $3,249 +$13 (+0%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? No 88¢ 90¢ $2,543 $2,617 +$74 (+3%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 20¢ 74¢ $687 $2,524 +$1,837 (+267%)
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 73¢ 74¢ $1,343 $1,352 +$9 (+1%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 20¢ 16¢ $584 $453 −$131 (-22%)
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $290 $283 −$7 (-2%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 26¢ 26¢ $254 $259 +$5 (+2%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? No 83¢ 84¢ $105 $107 +$2 (+2%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 11¢ 12¢ $99 $103 +$4 (+5%)
Will Bill Reid win the 2026 Arbroath and Broughty Ferry by-election? No 90¢ 88¢ $90 $88 −$2 (-2%)
Will Brandon Aiyuk play for Washington Commanders in 2026-27? No 50¢ 55¢ $61 $67 +$6 (+10%)
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in June 2026? No 54¢ 56¢ $54 $56 +$2 (+5%)
Will Simon Finkelstein win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $3,401 $56 −$3,344 (-98%)
Will James Thomas Bryer win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $3,401 $56 −$3,344 (-98%)
Will John Skipworth win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $3,401 $56 −$3,344 (-98%)
Will Maria Deery win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $3,216 $53 −$3,163 (-98%)
Will Mauricio Cardenas win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $3,493 $49 −$3,445 (-99%)
Will Enrique Peñalosa win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $3,493 $49 −$3,445 (-99%)
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $3,493 $49 −$3,445 (-99%)
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $3,493 $49 −$3,445 (-99%)
Will David Luna Sánchez win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $3,493 $49 −$3,445 (-99%)
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $3,493 $49 −$3,445 (-99%)
Will Daniel Quintero win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $3,493 $49 −$3,445 (-99%)
Will Juan Carlos Pinzón win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $3,493 $49 −$3,445 (-99%)
Will Juan Manuel Galán win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $3,493 $49 −$3,445 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian pre Jun 15 $346 −$346 -100%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid Jun 15 $346 −$346 -100%
Will Sergio Fajardo place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian p Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Claudia López place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian pr Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Gustavo Bolívar win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian president Jun 15 $346 −$346 -100%
Will Enrique Peñalosa place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Juan Carlos Pinzón place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Claudia López win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidentia Jun 15 $346 −$346 -100%
Will Enrique Peñalosa win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presiden Jun 15 $346 −$346 -100%
Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Juan Manuel Galán place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombia Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidenti Jun 15 $346 −$346 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 15 $2 $0 -5%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 4? Jun 15 $15 +$64 +434%
Will Vicky Dávila place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian pre Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Daniel Quintero place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 2? Jun 15 $3 −$1 -30%
Will Juan Manuel Galán win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian preside Jun 15 $346 −$346 -100%
Will Vicky Dávila win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential Jun 15 $224 −$344 -153%
Will Mauricio Cárdenas place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombia Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Roy Barreras win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential Jun 15 $346 −$346 -100%
Will David Luna Sánchez place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will David Luna Sánchez win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid Jun 15 $346 −$346 -100%
Will Paloma Valencia place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 15 $2 −$2 -89%
Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-0 be the exact series outcome? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colo Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Gustavo Bolívar place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Miguel Uribe Turbay win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 15 $706 −$3,493 -495%
Will Mauricio Cárdenas win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian preside Jun 15 $346 −$346 -100%
Will Gianluca Tittarelli win the 2026 Macerata mayoral election? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Roy Barreras place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian pre Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian president Jun 15 $11 −$336 -3151%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election Jun 15 $706 −$3,493 -495%
Will Daniel Quintero win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian president Jun 15 $346 −$346 -100%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 15 $24 −$12 -50%
Will Juan Carlos Pinzón win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid Jun 15 $346 −$346 -100%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 15 $55,061 −$45,606 -83%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $2,864 +$98 +3%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $73 +$10 +14%
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026? Jun 14 $599 +$11 +2%
Will a team from LEC (Europe / EMEA) win MSI 2026? Jun 14 $283 +$5 +2%
Will Marc Guéhi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $29 +$5 +16%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet Jun 14 $808 +$4,287 +530%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 14 $3,760 −$3,624 -96%
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market clos Jun 13 $146 +$10 +7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 13 $22 −$2 -10%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 13 $8,518 −$6,583 -77%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $2,324 +$11 +0%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 13 $68 −$23 -34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY No 11¢ $1 3m
Will Vicky Dávila win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6m
Will Rick Caruso win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7m
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 26¢ $26 21m
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $10 23m
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 88¢ $1 28m
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY No 11¢ $7 34m
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 88¢ $145 51m
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 SELL Yes 74¢ $4 52m
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 SELL Yes 74¢ $4 53m
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 SELL Yes 74¢ $4 55m
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 SELL Yes 74¢ $4 55m
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 26¢ $9 55m
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 26¢ $3 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 SELL Yes 74¢ $6 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 SELL Yes 74¢ $11 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY No 11¢ $12 1h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 87¢ $1,391 1h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 26¢ $82 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY No 11¢ $1 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY No 11¢ $0 1h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 87¢ $196 1h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 88¢ $4 2h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 26¢ $0 2h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 87¢ $28 2h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY No 11¢ $41 2h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 87¢ $13 2h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 26¢ $91 2h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 87¢ $13 2h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 87¢ $13 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13,135.65 · official $13,138.57 (match) · 3500 history records