Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T17:50:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

42
0x4208…9f55
crypto · 1648 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$898 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$366 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$366
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses1197 / 451
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1648 / 1648
History coverage45d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day47.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 1648 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$220
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Up 66¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Down 59¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Up 93¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Up 75¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Up 69¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Up 79¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Up 76¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Down 82¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Up 73¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Up 74¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Up 67¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Down 75¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Down 58¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Up 69¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Down 78¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +22%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +52%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +34%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +38%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +27%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +29%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +16%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +22%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +26%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +50%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +19%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +25%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$1 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$366
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 3m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 9m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 13m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 23m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 28m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 28m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 29m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 33m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 33m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 37m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 42m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 48m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 53m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 58m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 58m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 58m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 424 +1.0% -8.6% 81% 58% -10.1%
≤30d 923 -1.3% -10.7% 74% 54% -13.4%
≤90d 1648 -0.4% -9.8% 73% 60% -11.8%
all 1648 -0.4% -9.8% 73% 60% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover47.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 60% -11.8%
10% ← realistic here -18.5% 44% -20.3%
15% -26.3% 25% -28.0%
20% -33.6% 13% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records