Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:59:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x4209…aa9a weather 84 markets active 2h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$28 (-5%) realized −$9 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%20W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$166now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$79
7 days+$90
14 days−$13
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$29
weather 36% −$14
sports 3% −$18
politics 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +107.9% +88.1% 69% 69% +66.9%
≤30d 72 -12.6% -20.9% 28% 28% -19.6%
≤90d 72 -12.6% -20.9% 28% 28% -19.6%
all 72 -12.6% -20.9% 28% 28% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.9% 28% -19.6%
10% -28.5% 26% -27.3%
15% -35.4% 25% -34.3%
20% -41.7% 22% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -54% → late +29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$4 · ×2.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$166
Realized−$9
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses20 / 52
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions12
Markets (closed)72 / 84
History coverage26d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $23 $50 +$27 (+119%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $59 $43 −$16 (-27%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $29 $23 −$6 (-21%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $16 $15 −$1 (-6%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+41%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-29%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $14 $6 −$8 (-58%)
Will Casemiro score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 33¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-11%)
Will Bruno Fernandes record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 8¢ $9 $6 −$4 (-39%)
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 2¢ $7 $2 −$5 (-76%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 21? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 21? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 21? Jun 21 $10 +$30 +295%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $4 +$28 +730%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $4 +$5 +131%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $24 +$13 +57%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $3 +$6 +197%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 20? Jun 19 $4 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $4 +$10 +238%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 19? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $3 +$7 +212%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$7 +155%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $22 −$7 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 16? Jun 15 $8 −$7 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +87%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 −$2 -45%
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $1 +$4 +329%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 −$1 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$14 +276%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$4 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$3 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$3 +175%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 11? Jun 10 $3 −$2 -46%
Libema Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Panna Udvardy Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 7? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 9? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 7? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 9? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 7? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 9? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Monte win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Will B8 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Will The MongolZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Legacy win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Will PARIVISION win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 10 $15 −$15 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $8 +$8 +103%
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 09 $10 −$9 -97%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 09 $4 +$1 +27%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $3 +$1 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 10? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 21? SELL Yes 100¢ $40 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 21? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 21? BUY Yes 40¢ $4 10h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $32 10h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 21? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 12h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $30 16h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 20? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 21h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 36¢ $37 36h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $9 36h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 42¢ $4 37h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 20? BUY Yes 30¢ $4 37h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 2d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 19? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 2d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $66 2d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 19? BUY Yes 29¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 18? SELL Yes 51¢ $6 3d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 18? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 18? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? SELL Yes 94¢ $12 4d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 4d
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $15 4d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 50¢ $8 5d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 5d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 14? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 14? BUY Yes 52¢ $3 7d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 14? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 7d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 14? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 7d
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $166.31 · official $166.31 (match) · 166 history records