Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T16:27:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

42
0x4209…a8f7
crypto · 641 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$781 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$805 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3
Realized−$805
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses390 / 250
Open positions1
Markets (closed)640 / 641
History coverage29d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day65.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 640 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$131
7 days−$184
14 days−$448
30 days−$805
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Up 60¢ 69¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+15%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Down 29¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Up 72¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Up 39¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? Yes 99¢ 0¢ $74 $0 −$74 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Down 68¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? Yes 81¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Down 78¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Up 39¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Down 61¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 5? Yes 81¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Up 64¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$3 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$2 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $22 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 14 $24 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $29 +$6 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$9 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $59 −$24 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $31 +$9 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $12 −$7 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $25 −$15 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$21 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$6 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $27 −$27 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 14 $13 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 14 $13 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $38 +$12 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 14 $48 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$7 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $22 −$7 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$805
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $0 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $0 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $0 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 517 -10.2% -18.8% 56% 45% -13.4%
≤30d 640 -7.4% -16.3% 61% 40% -16.9%
≤90d 640 -7.4% -16.3% 61% 40% -16.9%
all 640 -7.4% -16.3% 61% 40% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover65.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.3% 40% -16.9%
10% ← realistic here -24.3% 31% -24.8%
15% -31.6% 23% -32.1%
20% -38.3% 16% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.45 · official $2.52 (match) · 2353 history records