Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:17:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x420b…43da sports 320 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$45 (-3%) realized −$46 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate49%155W / 160L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day48.0pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days−$87
14 days−$74
30 days−$74
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$37
other 18% −$13
crypto 11% −$25
politics 4% +$1
world 1% +$1
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 197 -9.9% -18.5% 51% 47% -18.8%
≤30d 315 -5.9% -14.9% 49% 44% -13.6%
≤90d 315 -5.9% -14.9% 49% 44% -13.6%
all 315 -5.9% -14.9% 49% 44% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.9% 44% -13.6%
10% ← realistic here -23.0% 37% -21.9%
15% -30.5% 28% -29.4%
20% -37.3% 17% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized−$46
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses155 / 160
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions5
Markets (closed)315 / 320
History coverage14d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day48.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 315 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 74¢ 72¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? No 74¢ 90¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+21%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? No 53¢ 54¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? No 76¢ 76¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 66¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $2 −$1 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $3 +$1 +28%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 −$1 -67%
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina Jun 18 $3 −$1 -45%
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 18 $3 −$1 -44%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -86%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally Jun 18 $3 +$2 +64%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $3 −$2 -55%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 18 $9 +$1 +9%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 18 $2 +$1 +72%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 18 $3 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $9 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 18 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 18 $3 +$1 +31%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 18 $2 +$2 +80%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 −$1 -61%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $3 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 18 $4 +$1 +16%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $3 −$1 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $17 +$1 +7%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +67%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +32%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $1 −$1 -56%
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt Jun 17 $2 +$2 +70%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $2 +$2 +76%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $2 +$1 +64%
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Matias Soto Jun 17 $2 +$1 +50%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$2 -47%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $6 −$3 -43%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 17 $2 $0 +23%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $2 $0 +13%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $1 $0 -46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 34¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $3 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 58¢ $2 1h
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina SELL Elena Rybakina 30¢ $2 2h
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina BUY Elena Rybakina 53¢ $3 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $3 2h
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci SELL Raphael Collignon 31¢ $2 3h
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Raphael Collignon 53¢ $3 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 34¢ $0 5h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally SELL Karolina Pliskova 100¢ $5 6h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez SELL Viktorija Golubic 27¢ $1 7h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Viktorija Golubic 58¢ $3 7h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally BUY Karolina Pliskova 60¢ $3 7h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? SELL No 100¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $3 16h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $4 16h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 96¢ $3 16h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs SELL Chicago Cubs 100¢ $4 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $3 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $3 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 18h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun SELL Washington Mystics 97¢ $4 18h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 24¢ $1 18h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 93¢ $4 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.02 · official $19.02 (match) · 762 history records