Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:11:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x420b…965b sports 961 markets active 2h ago coverage 50d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 50d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3,282 (-4%) realized −$3,982 · open +$700
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate54%493W / 412L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day55.7pace
Fees−$915est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$2,852now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 50d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$1,895
other 16% +$768
world 2% −$14
crypto 2% −$339
politics 0% +$93
tech 0% +$6
culture 0% $0
weather 0% −$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +56.3% +41.4% 64% 64% +9.6%
≤30d 492 +3.5% -6.3% 56% 53% -9.8%
≤90d 905 +0.1% -9.4% 54% 52% -7.6%
all 905 +0.1% -9.4% 54% 52% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover55.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 52% -7.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 48% -16.5%
15% -26.0% 40% -24.5%
20% -33.3% 31% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$75 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$2,852
Realized−$3,982
Unrealized+$700
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses493 / 412
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$915
Open positions11
Markets (closed)905 / 961
History coverage50d ⚠
Avg bet$88
Trades / day55.7
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 905 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 23¢ $1,167 $1,607 +$440 (+38%)
Call of Duty: FaZe Vegas vs Los Angeles Thieves (BO5) - Call of Duty League Stage 4 Major Playoffs Los Angeles Thieves 68¢ 100¢ $276 $406 +$130 (+47%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? Yes 2¢ 5¢ $81 $186 +$104 (+128%)
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Yellow Submarine 50¢ 60¢ $125 $150 +$25 (+20%)
Will Morocco be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? No 68¢ 72¢ $102 $107 +$5 (+5%)
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Card) Rafael Fiziev 49¢ 50¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Main Card) Shara Magomedov 76¢ 76¢ $76 $76 +$0 (+1%)
UFC Fight Night: Nazim Sadykhov vs. Matheus Camilo (Lightweight, Main Card) Nazim Sadykhov 63¢ 63¢ $75 $75 +$0 (+0%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 88¢ $50 $62 +$12 (+23%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert Zizou Bergs 29¢ 26¢ $49 $45 −$4 (-9%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 48¢ $50 $37 −$13 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Abus Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (Middleweight, Jun 27 $51 +$49 +97%
UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Prelims) Jun 27 $61 +$39 +65%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs Miami Heretics (BO5) - Call of Dut Jun 27 $365 +$135 +37%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 27 $20 −$20 -98%
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Sumit Nagal Jun 27 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $81 +$37 +46%
Will New Zealand finish last in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gro Jun 27 $28 +$21 +75%
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $50 +$12 +24%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score AND Spread: Belgium (-1.5 Jun 27 $50 +$260 +522%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06 Jun 27 $100 +$350 +350%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $75 +$25 +33%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $45 −$45 -100%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $60 −$60 -100%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $76 +$37 +49%
Senegal vs. Iraq: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 AND Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 AND S Jun 26 $50 +$95 +189%
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Andrej Nedic AND Will France win on 2026 Jun 26 $50 +$74 +147%
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $101 +$365 +363%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 26 $49 +$141 +285%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $24 +$30 +122%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+3.5) Jun 26 $55 −$55 -100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 26 $51 −$51 -100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 26 $29 −$29 -100%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs FURIA (+3.5) Jun 26 $64 −$64 -100%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs FURIA (+3.5) Jun 26 $64 −$64 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 26 $40 −$40 -100%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 26 $113 −$113 -100%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 26 $173 −$173 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 26 $118 −$118 -100%
Will Spirit reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 26 $234 −$234 -100%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 26 $663 −$519 -78%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $51 +$39 +76%
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta Jun 24 $3 +$1 +39%
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St Jun 24 $101 +$68 +68%
Will Jordan finish last in Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St Jun 23 $72 +$28 +39%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $71 +$29 +41%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score AND Will France win on 2026-06 Jun 23 $49 +$42 +85%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $97 +$63 +65%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs FURIA (+3.5) Jun 21 $34 +$66 +194%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 AND Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herze Jun 21 $54 +$170 +316%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 20 $26 +$64 +245%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners AND Netherlands vs. Sweden Jun 20 $26 +$79 +309%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $246 +$141 +57%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $46 +$54 +117%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $54 −$54 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 20 $48 −$48 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $134 −$134 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 AND Will United States win on 2026-06- Jun 20 $25 +$123 +488%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $41 +$130 +316%
Will Haiti finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta Jun 20 $101 +$26 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Yellow Submarine 50¢ $25 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Yellow Submarine 50¢ $100 1h
UFC Fight Night: Nazim Sadykhov vs. Matheus Camilo (Lightweight, Main BUY Nazim Sadykhov 63¢ $76 1h
UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Prelims) BUY Farman Hasanov 60¢ $61 1h
UFC Fight Night: Abus Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (Middleweight, BUY Abus Magomedov 50¢ $51 1h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Rafael Fiziev 49¢ $102 1h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 39¢ $20 1h
Call of Duty: FaZe Vegas vs Los Angeles Thieves (BO5) - Call of Duty L BUY Los Angeles Thieves 68¢ $276 2h
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Sumit Nagal BUY Felix Balshaw 63¢ $50 4h
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs Miami Heretics (BO5) - Call of Dut BUY Paris Gentle Mates 73¢ $365 7h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert BUY Zizou Bergs 29¢ $42 10h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert BUY Zizou Bergs 29¢ $7 10h
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Mai BUY Shara Magomedov 76¢ $76 11h
Will United States win on 2026-07-01? AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-2 BUY 6¢ $50 11h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Croatia O/U 0.5 AND England to score first vs. Pana BUY 36¢ $66 11h
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? SELL Yes 5¢ $15 14h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 BUY Over 12¢ $57 18h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 BUY Over 12¢ $0 18h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 BUY Over 12¢ $0 18h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 BUY Over 12¢ $0 18h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 BUY Over 12¢ $0 19h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 BUY Over 12¢ $1 19h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 75¢ $75 20h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 BUY Over 12¢ $1 20h
Erling Haaland: 1+ shots AND Norway vs. France: France O/U 1.5 BUY 58¢ $82 25h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 26¢ $20 25h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $13 25h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $8 25h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 26¢ $11 26h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $24 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,851.68 · official $2,971.98 · 3500 history records