Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T23:43:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x420c…1f36 weather 464 markets active 2h ago coverage 147d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$196 (-2%) realized −$160 · open −$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate42%194W / 265L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day14.3pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$206now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$73
7 days+$73
14 days+$72
30 days+$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 90% −$65
crypto 7% −$76
other 1% −$158
politics 1% −$46
sports 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +9.3% -1.1% 30% 30% -3.4%
≤30d 119 -19.7% -27.4% 29% 29% -6.5%
≤90d 230 -12.8% -21.1% 32% 32% -6.3%
all 459 -1.8% -11.2% 42% 36% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 36% -11.3%
10% -19.7% 30% -19.8%
15% -27.4% 25% -27.5%
20% -34.5% 22% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$19 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$206
Realized−$160
Unrealized−$36
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses194 / 265
Open positions5
Markets (closed)459 / 464
History coverage147d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day14.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 459 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 94-95°F on June 29? Yes 37¢ 37¢ $121 $123 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 92-93°F on June 29? Yes 36¢ 34¢ $70 $66 −$4 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 96-97°F on June 29? Yes 19¢ 16¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-15%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 28? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 28? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 148 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 28? Jun 28 $70 −$53 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 28? Jun 28 $10 +$76 +724%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 28? Jun 28 $38 −$38 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 28 $16 +$24 +146%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 25? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 25? Jun 27 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 25? Jun 27 $41 −$41 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 27? Jun 27 $130 +$165 +127%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 27? Jun 27 $41 −$39 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 27? Jun 27 $30 −$29 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 27? Jun 27 $108 −$104 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 26? Jun 26 $66 +$197 +300%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 26? Jun 26 $49 −$48 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 26? Jun 26 $98 −$95 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 65°F or below on June 26? Jun 26 $22 −$21 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 25? Jun 26 $53 +$71 +134%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 25? Jun 25 $6 −$5 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 23? Jun 23 $31 +$54 +176%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 23? Jun 23 $8 −$8 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 23? Jun 23 $40 −$39 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 22? Jun 23 $89 +$145 +163%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 22? Jun 22 $32 −$31 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 22? Jun 22 $76 −$74 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 22? Jun 21 $13 −$12 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 21? Jun 21 $55 −$54 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 21? Jun 21 $53 +$106 +201%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 21? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 21? Jun 20 $27 −$26 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 20? Jun 20 $93 +$138 +148%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 20? Jun 20 $52 −$49 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 20? Jun 20 $99 −$97 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 20? Jun 20 $11 −$11 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 19? Jun 19 $17 −$17 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 19? Jun 19 $30 +$33 +110%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 19 $10 +$14 +135%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 18 $7 −$7 -97%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 18 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 17? Jun 18 $77 +$122 +158%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 17? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 17? Jun 18 $37 −$30 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 17? Jun 17 $72 −$70 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 17? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $85 −$78 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $87 +$58 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 13 $55 +$66 +121%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 13 $48 −$40 -84%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 13 $28 −$22 -77%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 96-97°F on June 29? BUY Yes 19¢ $21 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 94-95°F on June 29? BUY Yes 37¢ $53 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 94-95°F on June 29? BUY Yes 36¢ $21 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 92-93°F on June 29? BUY Yes 36¢ $21 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 94-95°F on June 29? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 94-95°F on June 29? BUY Yes 37¢ $41 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 92-93°F on June 29? BUY Yes 35¢ $52 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 28? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 28? SELL Yes 99¢ $86 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 28? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju SELL Yes 99¢ $40 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 28? SELL Yes 50¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 28? SELL Yes 50¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 28? SELL Yes 50¢ $11 7h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 28? SELL Yes 50¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju SELL Yes 40¢ $3 9h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju SELL Yes 40¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju SELL Yes 40¢ $27 10h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju SELL Yes 40¢ $8 10h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY Yes 39¢ $16 23h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 15¢ $9 23h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 36¢ $22 23h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 35¢ $36 23h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 28? BUY Yes 41¢ $25 23h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 28? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 23h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 28? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 23h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 28? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 23h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 28? BUY Yes 30¢ $28 23h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 28? BUY Yes 41¢ $34 23h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 27? SELL Yes 99¢ $173 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $206.10 · official $206.10 (match) · 2178 history records