Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:20:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x4211…cc77 crypto 846 markets active 0h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,990 (-9%) realized −$5,000 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate34%289W / 552L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day19.4pace
Fees−$46est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$91
7 days−$431
14 days−$2,103
30 days−$2,103
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$9,179
other 8% +$1,278
sports 8% +$1,357
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -26.9% -33.8% 31% 28% -18.7%
≤30d 72 -34.4% -40.7% 32% 29% -29.5%
≤90d 158 -47.8% -52.8% 22% 20% -49.2%
all 841 -11.4% -19.9% 34% 33% -21.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.9% 33% -21.5%
10% -27.5% 31% -29.0%
15% -34.5% 29% -35.9%
20% -40.9% 27% -42.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$51 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$5,000
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses289 / 552
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$46
Open positions1
Markets (closed)841 / 846
History coverage120d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day19.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 841 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Up 20¢ 24¢ $50 $60 +$10 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 444 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 23 $100 −$95 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 23 $35 −$33 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 23 $48 −$45 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 23 $81 −$76 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 23 $72 +$38 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 23 $94 +$49 +52%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? A Jun 23 $430 −$42 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 23 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 23 $103 −$22 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 23 $49 −$47 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 23 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 23 $79 −$25 -32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$27 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 23 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 23 $95 −$30 -32%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 23 $28 +$81 +291%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 23 $104 −$104 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 23 $105 −$100 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 23 $105 +$19 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 23 $105 −$100 -95%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $242 +$436 +180%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $553 +$358 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $154 −$146 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $131 −$125 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $64 −$60 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $53 +$178 +337%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $130 −$125 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $189 −$180 -95%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $450 −$442 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $563 +$379 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 13 $30 −$29 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $19 −$18 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $52 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 13 $62 +$63 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 13 $53 −$50 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $37 −$35 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 13 $132 −$125 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $105 +$85 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $194 −$185 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 13 $131 +$16 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 13 $178 −$123 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $222 −$210 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $104 −$104 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $132 −$132 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 13 $137 −$130 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 13 $129 +$97 +75%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 13 $53 −$50 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $53 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $100 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $35 21m
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals AND Spread: Croatia (-2.5) AND Harry Kane: BUY 3¢ $10 22m
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $48 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $81 36m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 26¢ $110 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $72 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $143 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $94 46m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? A SELL 46¢ $389 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $49 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $49 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $81 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $92 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $53 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $141 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.92 · official $488.37 · 2462 history records