Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:09:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x4212…26cd crypto 242 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$100 (+7%) realized +$212 · open −$112
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate53%124W / 112L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day13.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$285now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$106
7 days+$131
14 days+$109
30 days+$88
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$51
sports 29% −$36
crypto 18% −$36
world 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 +2.9% -6.9% 61% 57% +9.2%
≤30d 236 -4.2% -13.3% 53% 45% -0.7%
≤90d 236 -4.2% -13.3% 53% 45% -0.7%
all 236 -4.2% -13.3% 53% 45% -0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 45% -0.7%
10% -21.6% 38% -10.2%
15% -29.2% 34% -18.8%
20% -36.1% 31% -26.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$285
Realized+$212
Unrealized−$112
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses124 / 112
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions6
Markets (closed)236 / 242
History coverage24d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day13.3
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 236 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 52¢ 40¢ $115 $88 −$27 (-24%)
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 48¢ $50 $85 +$35 (+70%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 51¢ 28¢ $110 $59 −$51 (-46%)
Colombia vs. Portugal: Portugal O/U 0.5 Over 86¢ 36¢ $100 $42 −$58 (-58%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 53¢ 26¢ $12 $6 −$6 (-50%)
Colombia vs. Portugal: Colombia O/U 0.5 Over 67¢ 34¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 95 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Panama vs. England: O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $50 +$4 +8%
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $50 +$7 +13%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $100 +$16 +16%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $5 −$4 -72%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $5 −$3 -64%
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $21 +$27 +125%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $5 −$2 -39%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $101 +$20 +20%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $1 $0 +20%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $5 +$3 +57%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Egypt O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $10 +$4 +43%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $10 +$6 +59%
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $2 $0 +14%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $86 +$57 +67%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $25 −$22 -86%
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? Jun 27 $5 −$4 -78%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $5 +$3 +62%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $51 +$11 +21%
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Norway vs. France: France O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $5 −$5 -99%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $2 −$2 -99%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $1 $0 +14%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 +$4 +73%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1 $0 +34%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $36 +$21 +57%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $1 $0 +16%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $1 $0 +46%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $1 $0 +35%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $1 +$1 +67%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 24 $2 $0 +7%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $1 $0 +19%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $1 −$1 -88%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Morocco to score first vs. Haiti? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 24 $1 +$3 +275%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Canada O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $1 +$2 +172%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $1 +$2 +151%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $1 +$1 +145%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1 +$1 +134%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $1 +$1 +59%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1 $0 +39%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1 +$1 +55%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1 $0 +12%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $1 +$2 +226%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Portugal O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $100 1h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 2h
Panama vs. England: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $54 2h
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $57 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $116 2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 2h
Panama vs. England: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $50 3h
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 88¢ $50 8h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 8h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 8h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $100 8h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Portugal O/U 0.5 SELL Over 82¢ $109 8h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 19h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Portugal O/U 0.5 BUY Over 82¢ $111 19h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Colombia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $10 19h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 20h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 20h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 66¢ $23 20h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 18¢ $3 20h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 74¢ $25 20h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $120 20h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 46¢ $1 20h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 28¢ $5 21h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 22¢ $5 21h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $284.54 · official $280.42 · 437 history records