Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:37:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
42 0x4214…db99 sports 293 markets active 0h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,334 (-4%) realized −$5,103 · open +$769
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%128W / 163L
Whale WR48%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$422per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$1,331est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4,395now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,290
7 days+$1,177
14 days+$3,373
30 days−$2,117
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$2,946
crypto 0% +$77
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -5.8% -14.7% 50% 50% +58.3%
≤30d 79 +8.9% -1.5% 48% 48% -13.2%
≤90d 227 +6.6% -3.5% 42% 42% -15.6%
all 291 +3.8% -6.1% 44% 44% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 44% -12.3%
10% -15.1% 43% -20.7%
15% -23.3% 41% -28.3%
20% -30.8% 37% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 48% (≥$574) neutral
Persistence
early +6% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$452 vs −$377 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$4,395
Realized−$5,103
Unrealized+$769
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses128 / 163
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Est. fees paid−$1,331
Open positions2
Markets (closed)291 / 293
History coverage119d
Avg bet$422
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 291 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner FURIA 66¢ 100¢ $1,643 $2,489 +$845 (+51%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 65¢ 62¢ $1,983 $1,906 −$77 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 103 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $1,458 +$1,290 +88%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $115 −$112 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $1,112 +$1,353 +122%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $6 +$8 +119%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $507 +$453 +89%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $906 −$882 -97%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $669 −$657 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $1,019 −$1,000 -98%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $2,000 +$3,235 +162%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $1,935 −$1,900 -98%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $922 +$1,495 +162%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $1,627 −$1,605 -99%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $96 +$645 +669%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $1,017 −$1,000 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $610 +$695 +114%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $1,206 +$577 +48%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $306 +$271 +89%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $910 +$640 +70%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $761 −$750 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $1,513 +$619 +41%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $1,066 +$1,371 +129%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner May 30 $459 −$459 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner May 30 $193 −$189 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner May 30 $618 +$281 +46%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner May 30 $324 −$324 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualif May 30 $306 +$101 +33%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs OG - Game 2 Winner May 30 $82 −$80 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET May 30 $4 −$4 -98%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $1,393 −$1,372 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $1,105 −$1,087 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $812 −$800 -98%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $535 +$965 +180%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $337 −$330 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $255 −$250 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $834 −$821 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $255 +$526 +206%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $630 +$233 +37%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $609 +$590 +97%
Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $615 −$615 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $1,300 +$340 +26%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $595 +$704 +118%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $1,036 −$1,026 -99%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $324 +$576 +178%
Dota 2: OG vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $332 +$717 +216%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $113 +$219 +194%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $160 −$160 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $102 −$100 -98%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $170 +$210 +124%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $154 −$150 -98%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $630 −$622 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 65¢ $2,004 13m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 100¢ $2,005 14m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 66¢ $742 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 100¢ $742 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 66¢ $918 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 53¢ $1,458 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 15¢ $115 6d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 45¢ $958 10d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL FUT Esports 100¢ $961 10d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 41¢ $154 10d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 52¢ $507 11d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 45¢ $6 11d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY LGD Gaming 9¢ $906 11d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 29¢ $2 11d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 29¢ $85 11d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 30¢ $92 11d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 32¢ $490 11d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 38¢ $1,019 11d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs SELL LGD Gaming 100¢ $5,235 11d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY LGD Gaming 38¢ $999 11d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY LGD Gaming 38¢ $1 11d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY LGD Gaming 38¢ $3 11d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY LGD Gaming 38¢ $503 11d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY LGD Gaming 38¢ $1 11d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY LGD Gaming 38¢ $4 11d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY LGD Gaming 38¢ $3 11d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY LGD Gaming 38¢ $486 11d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 38¢ $1,935 11d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL LGD Gaming 100¢ $2,417 11d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 38¢ $387 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,395.12 · official $4,273.11 · 928 history records