Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:01:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x4214…105d sports 99 markets active 2h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$348 (-16%) realized −$348 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate40%40W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$192
7 days+$179
14 days+$172
30 days−$669
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$277
other 23% −$33
crypto 8% −$34
culture 1% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-24.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +3.4% -6.5% 43% 39% +27.3%
≤30d 59 -39.0% -44.8% 25% 24% -54.1%
≤90d 99 -17.0% -24.9% 40% 38% -23.9%
all 99 -17.0% -24.9% 40% 38% -23.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.9% 38% -23.9%
10% -32.1% 36% -31.2%
15% -38.7% 33% -37.8%
20% -44.7% 29% -43.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$18 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$348
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses40 / 59
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)99 / 99
History coverage36d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 99 Trades
no open positions (37 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 23 $66 +$35 +52%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $110 +$58 +52%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $9 −$9 -99%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $16 −$10 -59%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $101 +$120 +119%
Argentina vs. Austria: Draw at halftime? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +0%
Mallorca Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 22 $6 −$1 -13%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $5 +$1 +26%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $3 +$2 +76%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -93%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $4 −$3 -73%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $36 −$35 -99%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Chun-Hsin Tseng Jun 18 $20 +$7 +36%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $22 −$2 -9%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $17 +$24 +146%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $12 +$8 +67%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $2 +$12 +633%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $6 −$5 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$4 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Neither team to score first? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $6 +$4 +70%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Aruba win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Romania win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $3 +$5 +165%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Bermuda end in a draw? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Will England vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Portugal vs. Chile end in a draw? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Gibraltar vs. Cayman Islands end in a draw? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Sierra Leone vs. Liberia end in a draw? Jun 06 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Sagan Tosu win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $8 +$10 +119%
Will Ethiopia vs. Malawi end in a draw? Jun 06 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Kazakhstan win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 06 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Kashiwa Reysol win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Kashima Antlers win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $10 +$13 +129%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $3 +$7 +238%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline Jun 04 $9 −$9 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $5 −$5 -97%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 28 $131 −$128 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY No 65¢ $66 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 65¢ $110 5h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 51¢ $9 5h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 19¢ $5 18h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 29¢ $2 18h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $16 19h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 45¢ $101 25h
Argentina vs. Austria: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes $0 29h
Argentina vs. Austria: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $1 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 33h
Mallorca Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Marton Fucsovics BUY Corentin Moutet 57¢ $6 43h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $6 43h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 79¢ $5 44h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 56¢ $3 47h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 4d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 26¢ $2 5d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes $1 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $36 5d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 5d
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Chun-Hsin Tseng SELL Laslo Djere 100¢ $27 5d
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Chun-Hsin Tseng BUY Laslo Djere 73¢ $20 5d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 14¢ $2 5d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China SELL Vici Gaming 48¢ $15 5d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 65¢ $20 5d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 5d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $17 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 182 history records