Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:06:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
42 0x421c…6fa3 sports 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 167d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$290 (-24%) realized −$335 · open +$45
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%5W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$289now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days+$28
14 days+$28
30 days+$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$53
other 39% −$285
crypto 4% +$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-36.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -15.6% -23.6% 50% 50% +9.6%
≤30d 4 -15.6% -23.6% 50% 50% +9.6%
≤90d 4 -15.6% -23.6% 50% 50% +9.6%
all 14 -29.3% -36.0% 36% 36% -40.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.0% 36% -40.7%
10% -42.1% 36% -46.4%
15% -47.7% 29% -51.6%
20% -52.9% 21% -56.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$53 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

167d coverage
Net worth$289
Realized−$335
Unrealized+$45
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses5 / 9
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)14 / 19
History coverage167d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 44¢ 86¢ $50 $97 +$47 (+94%)
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 75¢ 77¢ $76 $78 +$2 (+3%)
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 44¢ 40¢ $58 $53 −$5 (-8%)
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No $10 $11 +$1 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $44 +$33 +73%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $25 −$25 -99%
Donyell Malen: 1+ goals Jun 20 $12 −$12 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $50 +$32 +64%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025–2026 NBA Atlantic Division? Feb 11 $210 −$44 -21%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers make the NBA Playoffs? Feb 08 $128 −$6 -5%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to Chicago Bulls? Feb 02 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025–2026 NBA Pacific Division? Feb 02 $13 +$4 +27%
Will the US strike Somalia next? Jan 15 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Australian Open? Jan 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Brisbane International: Valentin Vacherot vs Sebastian Korda Jan 05 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Patriots (-14.5) Jan 05 $49 +$54 +111%
Spread: Heat (-9.5) Jan 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Broncos (-14.5) Jan 05 $50 +$20 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 75¢ $77 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 57¢ $44 5h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $25 5h
Donyell Malen: 1+ goals BUY Yes 23¢ $12 6h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $82 6h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $50 7h
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 44¢ $59 7h
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 56¢ $51 7h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No $10 8h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 44¢ $51 8h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025–2026 NBA Atlantic Division? SELL Yes 45¢ $167 129d
Will the Los Angeles Clippers make the NBA Playoffs? SELL Yes 31¢ $122 132d
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to Chicago Bulls? BUY Yes 13¢ $17 138d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025–2026 NBA Pacific Division? SELL Yes 50¢ $17 138d
Will the US strike Somalia next? BUY No $54 156d
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Australian Open? BUY Yes 50¢ $200 156d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025–2026 NBA Pacific Division? BUY Yes 39¢ $13 156d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025–2026 NBA Atlantic Division? BUY Yes 57¢ $210 157d
Will the Los Angeles Clippers make the NBA Playoffs? BUY Yes 33¢ $54 165d
Brisbane International: Valentin Vacherot vs Sebastian Korda BUY Vacherot 45¢ $50 166d
Spread: Patriots (-14.5) SELL Patriots 99¢ $103 166d
Spread: Heat (-9.5) BUY Pelicans 41¢ $20 166d
Brisbane International: Valentin Vacherot vs Sebastian Korda BUY Vacherot 36¢ $50 166d
Spread: Broncos (-14.5) SELL Broncos 84¢ $33 166d
Spread: Broncos (-14.5) SELL Broncos 81¢ $36 166d
Spread: Patriots (-14.5) BUY Patriots 47¢ $49 167d
Spread: Broncos (-14.5) BUY Broncos 59¢ $50 167d
Will the Los Angeles Clippers make the NBA Playoffs? BUY Yes 33¢ $74 167d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $289.48 · official $289.48 (match) · 29 history records