Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:33:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
42 0x421d…48bf sports 29 markets active 8h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$4 (+11%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate67%12W / 6L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day17.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% +$6
other 25% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +23.5% +11.7% 67% 33% +5.4%
≤30d 18 +23.5% +11.7% 67% 33% +5.4%
≤90d 18 +23.5% +11.7% 67% 33% +5.4%
all 18 +23.5% +11.7% 67% 33% +5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.7% 33% +5.4%
10% +1.1% 17% -4.7%
15% -8.7% 11% -13.9%
20% -17.7% 11% -22.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 88% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +76% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses12 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions11
Markets (closed)18 / 29
History coverage2d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day17.6
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Over 77¢ 81¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Over 79¢ 76¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Over 82¢ 84¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 91¢ 92¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Over 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Over 93¢ 93¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 0.5 Over 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Over 94¢ 94¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -78%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $1 −$1 -90%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -70%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $1 $0 +22%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $1 $0 +11%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $1 $0 +27%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2 $0 +7%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +261%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +9%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $1 $0 +13%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$6 +593%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 7h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over $0 7h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 27¢ $0 7h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 79¢ $2 15h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 77¢ $2 15h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $1 15h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 82¢ $1 15h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 84¢ $2 15h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 72¢ $1 15h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 81¢ $1 15h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 89¢ $1 15h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $1 15h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 98¢ $1 15h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $2 15h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $1 19h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 19h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 88¢ $1 19h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 98¢ $1 19h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $1 19h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 99¢ $1 19h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $1 29h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 99¢ $1 29h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 29h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 78¢ $1 29h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 29h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 88¢ $1 41h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.05 · official $16.05 (match) · 46 history records