Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:17:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x4222…a891 crypto 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (69 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$148 (-63%) realized −$148 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -62% what you keep after slip
Net edge-62%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day69.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$148
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-54.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -50.1% -54.8% 40% 40% -68.1%
≤30d 5 -50.1% -54.8% 40% 40% -68.1%
≤90d 5 -50.1% -54.8% 40% 40% -68.1%
all 5 -50.1% -54.8% 40% 40% -68.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover69.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -54.8% 40% -68.1%
10% ← realistic here -59.2% 20% -71.2%
15% -63.1% 0% -74.0%
20% -66.7% 0% -76.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -65% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -50% · $-wt -65% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
13.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$55 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$148
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day69.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 18 $52 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 18 $33 +$7 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 18 $72 −$69 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 18 $32 +$9 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 18 $47 −$45 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $72 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 71 history records