Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T18:07:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x4222…0f20 crypto 41 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$30 (+2%) realized +$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate95%39W / 2L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day19.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$64
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +5.4% -4.6% 95% 34% -4.9%
≤30d 41 +5.4% -4.6% 95% 34% -4.9%
≤90d 41 +5.4% -4.6% 95% 34% -4.9%
all 41 +5.4% -4.6% 95% 34% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.6% 34% -4.9%
10% -13.8% 20% -14.0%
15% -22.1% 5% -22.3%
20% -29.7% 0% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$30 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.07 per $1 lost it wins $2.07
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses39 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage2d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day19.1
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 26 $61 +$18 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 26 $60 +$6 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 26 $61 +$22 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 26 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 26 $60 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 26 $60 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 26 $60 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 26 $51 +$14 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 26 $50 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 26 $60 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 26 $60 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 26 $60 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 26 $50 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 26 $60 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 26 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 25 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 25 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 25 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 25 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 25 $30 +$6 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 25 $30 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 25 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 25 $30 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 25 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 25 $30 +$9 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 25 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 25 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$5 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 24 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 24 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 24 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 24 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$3 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $61 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $60 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $60 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $60 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $51 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $50 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $60 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $60 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $60 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $50 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $60 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $10 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $30 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $10 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $30 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $10 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $30 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $30 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $30 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $30 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 82 history records