Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:46:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x4227…8b36 world 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 254d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$8 (-1%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate20%10W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% +$7
other 32% −$10
politics 12% −$4
crypto 6% −$1
sports 5% $0
culture 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 67% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 13 -0.0% -9.6% 46% 8% -8.9%
≤90d 15 -6.1% -15.0% 40% 7% -10.1%
all 51 -2.3% -11.6% 20% 4% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 4% -10.2%
10% -20.1% 2% -18.8%
15% -27.8% 0% -26.6%
20% -34.9% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

254d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses10 / 41
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage254d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No 72¢ 72¢ $61 $62 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $67 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $61 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $58 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 27 $63 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $8 −$2 -22%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $64 −$2 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $3 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $59 +$6 +10%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $12 +$4 +33%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 23 $2 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 23 $3 $0 -15%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 21 $53 −$3 -6%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 21 $58 +$1 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 20 $2 $0 -7%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Apr 06 $9 −$7 -83%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Feb 08 $17 −$3 -14%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Nov 27 $15 −$3 -20%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 23 $13 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 23 $9 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 22 $102 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 21 $10 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 21 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Oct 22 $19 +$3 +17%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 20 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 19 $12 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 19 $8 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 19 $13 $0 +0%
Will Frankenstein win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 19 $7 $0 -0%
Will Curtis Sliwa win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 18 $7 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October? Oct 18 $18 $0 -1%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Oct 17 $21 −$1 -5%
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by October 31? Oct 17 $3 $0 +3%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 17 $23 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 14 $24 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia? Oct 13 $23 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Oct 13 $24 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 13 $23 $0 +0%
Will Jay Kelly win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 12 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Oct 12 $24 $0 -0%
Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan? Oct 11 $24 −$1 -2%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 11 $7 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Belarus? Oct 11 $18 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 10 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 10 $8 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 in October? Oct 10 $7 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 10 $6 $0 -3%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Oct 09 $24 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $7 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $28 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $26 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 75¢ $4 15h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 75¢ $62 15h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 75¢ $67 17h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $35 23h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $26 23h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $12 27h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $49 27h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $40 30h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $19 30h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $58 33h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $7 23d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $8 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 66¢ $53 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 66¢ $9 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 68¢ $64 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $3 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $46 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $15 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $59 25d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 12¢ $0 25d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.62 · official $61.62 (match) · 198 history records