Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:43:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x422a…c395 weather 1083 markets active 2h ago coverage 54d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 53d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,567 (-18%) realized −$3,113 · open −$2,454
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate37%390W / 657L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day45.0pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,830now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$37
7 days+$271
14 days+$372
30 days−$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% −$1,204
world 17% −$1,858
politics 14% −$8
weather 9% −$264
finance 4% −$21
sports 3% +$39
other 1% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 167 -4.4% -13.5% 32% 29% +8.3%
≤30d 643 +0.4% -9.2% 35% 31% -9.9%
≤90d 1047 -1.1% -10.5% 37% 34% -12.4%
all 1047 -1.1% -10.5% 37% 34% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.5% 34% -12.4%
10% ← realistic here -19.1% 30% -20.8%
15% -26.9% 26% -28.4%
20% -34.0% 23% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$7 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$1,830
Realized−$3,113
Unrealized−$2,454
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses390 / 657
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions36
Markets (closed)1047 / 1083
History coverage54d ⚠
Avg bet$29
Trades / day45.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 36 History 1047 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 89¢ $268 $259 −$9 (-3%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? No 82¢ 64¢ $246 $191 −$55 (-23%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 28, 2026? Yes 91¢ 94¢ $136 $140 +$4 (+3%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 20, 2026? Yes 91¢ 93¢ $128 $130 +$2 (+2%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No 83¢ 99¢ $100 $119 +$19 (+19%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? No 79¢ 99¢ $87 $109 +$22 (+25%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 23, 2026? Yes 91¢ 94¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 22, 2026? Yes 92¢ 94¢ $101 $103 +$2 (+2%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? Yes 92¢ 90¢ $103 $102 −$1 (-1%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 19, 2026? Yes 92¢ 93¢ $92 $93 +$1 (+1%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? Yes 92¢ 96¢ $72 $74 +$3 (+4%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 29, 2026? Yes 91¢ 94¢ $66 $67 +$2 (+3%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 18, 2026? Yes 92¢ 95¢ $55 $57 +$2 (+4%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 25, 2026? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $55 $56 +$0 (+1%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 26, 2026? Yes 92¢ 94¢ $47 $48 +$1 (+2%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 74¢ 88¢ $37 $44 +$7 (+19%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 30, 2026? Yes 92¢ 94¢ $42 $43 +$1 (+1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 4¢ 0¢ $1,201 $32 −$1,169 (-97%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 27, 2026? Yes 92¢ 91¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 24, 2026? Yes 90¢ 94¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+4%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 10¢ 0¢ $1,287 $6 −$1,281 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 17? Yes 36¢ 100¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+178%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 17? Yes 25¢ 100¢ $1 $5 +$4 (+300%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 17? Yes 76¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+32%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 17? Yes 39¢ 100¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+156%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 +$2 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 +$3 +103%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 17? Jun 17 $4 +$1 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 17? Jun 17 $4 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 +$2 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $4 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 +$3 +149%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 +$2 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $4 +$1 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $110 +$10 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 16? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 16? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 17 $3 +$2 +62%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 16? Jun 17 $2 +$3 +177%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? Jun 17 $3 +$2 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 16? Jun 17 $0 $0 +286%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 16? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 16? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 16? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 16? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 +$2 +95%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 +$5 +500%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY Yes 56¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 17? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY Yes 68¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 17? BUY Yes 76¢ $4 5h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 17? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 17? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 17? BUY Yes 51¢ $3 5h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 17? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 18¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 17? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 17? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 66¢ $3 11h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 17? BUY Yes 70¢ $4 12h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 17? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 17? BUY Yes 77¢ $4 15h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 17? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 16h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 18h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 18h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 80¢ $4 18h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 18h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,829.88 · official $1,829.81 (match) · 3500 history records