Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:05:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x422c…9af7 politics 74 markets active 2h ago coverage 630d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate1%1W / 73L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$240per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 64% −$11
other 24% −$4
economics 10% −$2
sports 1% $0
world 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 74 -0.4% -9.9% 1% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.8 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

630d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)1%
Wins / losses1 / 73
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)74 / 74
History coverage630d
Avg bet$240
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 74 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $56 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $56 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $56 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 17 $56 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $57 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $57 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 18 $58 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $58 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $58 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 07 $116 $0 +0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 27 $58 $0 +0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 16 $58 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 12 $58 $0 +0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 10 $58 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 04 $58 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $120 in February? Mar 02 $58 $0 +0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 07 $56 $0 -0%
Will Scott Seiver win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? Nov 24 $55 $0 -0%
Will TJ Watt win NFL Defensive Player of the Year? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the Serie A? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Girona FC win La Liga? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Brentford wins the Premier League? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Manchester United wins the Premier League? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Jaren Jackson Jr. win 2024-25 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Kyle Pitts be the top Fantasy Tight End? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will TRUMP reach $1b first? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Colts win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Lions win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
No one announced as next BlackRock CEO? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Derrick Henry be the top Fantasy Running Back? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Garrett Wilson be the top Fantasy Flex Player? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
GPT-5 announced in Q4 2024? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Jonathan Taylor be the top Fantasy Running Back? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Athletic Bilbao win La Liga? Dec 19 $0 $0 -0%
Will Anna Kanopatskaya win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? Dec 19 $1 $0 -0%
Will Fred VanVleet lead the NBA in Assists? Dec 19 $1 $0 -1%
Will Fed cut interest rates 5 times in 2024? Dec 19 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump get more votes than 2020? Dec 19 $3 $0 +0%
Will Jalen Milroe win the Heisman Trophy? Dec 19 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ryan Williams win the Heisman Trophy? Dec 19 $4 $0 +0%
Will Satoshi Nakamoto's identity not be proven in 2024? Dec 09 $0 $0 -2%
Will Drake Maye win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year? Dec 09 $1 $0 -0%
Will Chris Olave be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? Dec 09 $0 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari win the 2024 F1 Constructors Championship? Dec 09 $3 $0 +0%
Will Russia recapture Sudzha before December? Dec 09 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Titans win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 09 $5 $0 -0%
Will $NEIRO be listed first on Coinbase? Nov 26 $0 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $56 1h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $56 13h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $56 19d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $56 20d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $56 33d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $56 34d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $56 35d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $7 36d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 36d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $57 38d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $57 39d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 41d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 42d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $57 46d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $57 46d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? SELL No 99¢ $58 64d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $58 65d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $58 66d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $58 66d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $58 70d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $8 71d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $31 71d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $19 71d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $58 76d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $58 76d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $58 86d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $58 91d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $58 97d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $58 98d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $58 99d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 181 history records