Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:35:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x422d…7e39 sports 315 markets active 0h ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$680 (-8%) realized −$633 · open −$47
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate42%128W / 178L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day17.2pace
Fees−$165est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days−$19
14 days−$19
30 days−$431
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$990
other 2% +$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-26.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -16.1% -24.1% 60% 60% -23.6%
≤30d 100 -17.4% -25.3% 45% 43% -22.6%
≤90d 306 -19.2% -26.9% 42% 39% -18.7%
all 306 -19.2% -26.9% 42% 39% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.9% 39% -18.7%
10% -33.9% 36% -26.5%
15% -40.3% 30% -33.6%
20% -46.1% 22% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$15 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$633
Unrealized−$47
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses128 / 178
Est. fees paid−$165
Open positions9
Markets (closed)306 / 315
History coverage46d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day17.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 306 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 67¢ 81¢ $35 $43 +$8 (+22%)
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Over 47¢ 24¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs Pixel Lumina - Map 2 Winner Pixel Lumina 0¢ 16¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+0%)
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner 4ikibamboni 0¢ 5¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+0%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 7.5 Over 4¢ 4¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 Over 28¢ 6¢ $6 $1 −$5 (-77%)
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 Over 14¢ 1¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-91%)
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs L1ga Team 57¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner Power Rangers 42¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 120 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Enterprise Esports vs Barça eSports - Map 2 Winner Jun 22 $21 +$7 +34%
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs Beşiktaş Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gr Jun 22 $30 +$21 +68%
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs Beşiktaş Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 22 $19 +$3 +18%
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $15 −$15 -98%
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast A Jun 22 $36 −$35 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $35 −$34 -98%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $21 −$5 -24%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $31 −$13 -40%
LoL: Barça eSports vs ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix (BO3) - LES Playoffs Jun 05 $118 −$15 -12%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $16 −$16 -99%
LoL: Barça eSports vs ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $15 +$4 +24%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs REKONIX (BO5) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Clos Jun 05 $61 +$16 +26%
LoL: Barça eSports vs ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $50 −$22 -43%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $36 −$35 -98%
LoL: MVK Esports vs GAM Esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 05 $14 −$14 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $16 +$7 +41%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $35 +$20 +55%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $9 −$9 -98%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs REKONIX - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $8 −$6 -73%
LoL: MVK Esports vs GAM Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $16 +$10 +63%
LoL: MVK Esports vs GAM Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $25 +$7 +26%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $7 −$7 -98%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs REKONIX - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $20 +$19 +95%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Oman vs Hong Kong, China Jun 05 $42 +$20 +46%
Dota 2: Execration vs REKONIX (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Jun 05 $45 −$19 -43%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Bahrain vs Singapore Jun 05 $19 +$4 +22%
T20 Blast: Somerset vs Glamorgan Jun 05 $248 −$81 -33%
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports (BO5) - North American Challen Jun 05 $80 +$18 +22%
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $7 +$8 +109%
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $91 −$2 -2%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $46 −$1 -2%
LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - LES Playoffs Jun 04 $111 −$28 -25%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $43 +$3 +7%
LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 4 Winner Jun 04 $18 −$18 -98%
LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 3 Winner Jun 04 $18 −$12 -64%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $12 +$14 +116%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $9 −$9 -98%
LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $26 −$23 -88%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $16 −$15 -90%
LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $23 +$16 +68%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG - Map 1 Winner Jun 04 $21 +$10 +48%
T20 Blast: Essex vs Derbyshire May 31 $73 −$72 -99%
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands May 31 $8 +$14 +177%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 4 Winner May 31 $17 −$17 -99%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs May 31 $18 +$8 +44%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner May 31 $40 −$13 -33%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner May 31 $18 +$13 +73%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Gen.G Esports - Map 2 Winner May 31 $25 +$13 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 12¢ $5 3m
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs Pixel Lumina - Map 2 Winner BUY Pixel Lumina 25¢ $5 13m
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $10 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $35 1h
Valorant: Enterprise Esports vs Barça eSports - Map 2 Winner SELL Enterprise Esports 100¢ $28 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY L1ga Team 57¢ $35 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 4¢ $2 1h
Valorant: Enterprise Esports vs Barça eSports - Map 2 Winner BUY Enterprise Esports 74¢ $21 1h
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs Beşiktaş Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gr SELL NAVI Junior 100¢ $51 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl SELL Power Rangers 51¢ $40 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 14¢ $5 2h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 28¢ $6 2h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 42¢ $11 2h
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs Beşiktaş Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL NAVI Junior 85¢ $23 2h
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs Beşiktaş Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gr BUY NAVI Junior 58¢ $30 3h
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs Beşiktaş Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY NAVI Junior 71¢ $19 3h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl SELL Power Rangers 54¢ $14 3h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Power Rangers 47¢ $51 4h
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner BUY Execration 36¢ $15 4h
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast A BUY Execration 40¢ $36 4h
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 37¢ $11 17d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Heretics Academy 79¢ $11 17d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 38¢ $23 17d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs SELL Aurora 37¢ $19 17d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner SELL UCAM Esports Club 21¢ $5 17d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Heretics Academy 71¢ $10 17d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner BUY UCAM Esports Club 45¢ $11 17d
LoL: Barça eSports vs ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix (BO3) - LES Playoffs BUY Barça eSports 48¢ $9 17d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner BUY Aurora 60¢ $16 17d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Aurora 60¢ $31 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.55 · official $56.55 (match) · 805 history records