Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:27:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
42 0x4230…bc70 crypto 284 markets active 0h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$28 (+0%) realized +$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%280W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day15.8pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days−$14
14 days−$3
30 days+$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% +$37
other 7% −$15
finance 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 133 +0.1% -9.4% 98% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 284 +0.3% -9.2% 99% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 284 +0.3% -9.2% 99% 0% -9.2%
all 284 +0.3% -9.2% 99% 0% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 0% -9.2%
10% -17.9% 0% -17.9%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$22 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses280 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)284 / 284
History coverage19d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day15.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 284 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 24 $18 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 11PM ET Jun 24 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11PM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 8PM ET Jun 24 $49 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 4PM ET Jun 23 $50 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 23 $12 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 23 $12 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 23 $12 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 23 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 23 $8 $0 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 23 $17 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 23 $18 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 23 $18 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 23 $18 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 23 $18 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 7PM ET Jun 23 $14 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 22 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 22 $18 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 22 $18 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 22 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 22 $18 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 22 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 22 $18 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 22 $18 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 22 $18 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 4AM ET Jun 22 $12 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 22 $12 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 22 $18 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 22 $18 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 22 $12 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 22 $12 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 22 $12 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 22 $9 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 21 $8 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 21 $18 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 21 $18 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 21 $18 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 21 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 21 $18 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $29 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? Jun 21 $50 +$2 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 21? Jun 21 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 21 $50 +$2 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $18 12m
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 11PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 8PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $49 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 4PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $12 11h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $12 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $5 11h
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $12 12h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 94¢ $30 13h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 96¢ $30 13h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 23? BUY No 96¢ $30 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $18 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $8 17h
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $17 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $18 23h
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $18 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $18 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $18 24h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 7PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $14 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $18 29h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $18 32h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $18 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $18 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $18 34h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $18 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $18 37h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $18 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $18 41h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 4AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $12 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.45 · official $0.00 · 573 history records