Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:05:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x4232…d505 sports 466 markets active 0h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$7,514 (-8%) realized −$7,547 · open +$33
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate38%176W / 289L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$194per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Fees−$1,594est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$183now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$554
14 days−$1,455
30 days−$2,143
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$8,481
other 0% −$229
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +1.7% -8.0% 29% 29% -28.1%
≤30d 167 -10.7% -19.2% 28% 26% -22.0%
≤90d 465 -9.3% -17.9% 38% 37% -18.0%
all 465 -9.3% -17.9% 38% 37% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 37% -18.0%
10% -25.8% 34% -25.9%
15% -32.9% 33% -33.1%
20% -39.5% 30% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -8% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$178 vs −$139 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$183
Realized−$7,547
Unrealized+$33
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses176 / 289
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$1,594
Open positions1
Markets (closed)465 / 466
History coverage72d
Avg bet$194
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 465 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs Wingman (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playoffs ReThink 39¢ 48¢ $150 $183 +$33 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 58 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $113 −$58 -51%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Vera Zvonareva Jun 15 $105 +$206 +197%
Dublin: Alexis Galarneau vs Francesco Maestrelli Jun 15 $126 −$124 -98%
Dublin: Juan Pablo Ficovich vs Nicolas Mejia Jun 15 $162 −$76 -47%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $169 −$11 -7%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $121 +$197 +162%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Jun 15 $116 −$95 -82%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lin Zhu vs Sinja Kraus Jun 15 $97 −$95 -98%
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs Coalesce (BO3) - United21 Group Jun 15 $54 +$142 +262%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $102 −$85 -83%
ITF kiseljak: Yaroslav Demin vs Andrey Chepelev Jun 13 $40 −$39 -98%
ITF Hurghada: Polina Iatcenko vs Anastasia Tikhonova Jun 13 $11 +$30 +272%
ITF Zagreb: Lucija Ciric Bagaric vs Dora Miskovic Jun 10 $27 −$26 -98%
Libema Open: Lois Boisson vs Solana Sierra Jun 10 $27 $0 -2%
ITF San Gregorio: Maria Toma vs Alessandra Mazzola Jun 10 $49 −$22 -44%
ITF Wuning: Daria Zelinskaya vs Priska Madelyn Nugroho Jun 10 $67 −$65 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $121 −$105 -87%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5) Jun 10 $71 +$89 +125%
ITF Cuiaba: Maria Eduarda Carbone Dos Santos vs Giovana Schincariol De Jun 09 $221 −$202 -91%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 09 $202 −$199 -98%
Tucuman: Juan Estevez vs Matias Soto Jun 09 $97 +$105 +107%
ITF Wichita: Justin Boulais vs Ozan Baris Jun 09 $223 −$220 -99%
ITF Martos: Noah Lopez Cherubino vs Carles Hernandez Jun 09 $231 −$207 -90%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $155 +$306 +197%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5) Jun 06 $22 −$22 -98%
Counter-Strike: ex-Zero Tenacity vs BIG Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Clo Jun 06 $30 −$8 -26%
Stuttgart Open, Qualification: Roman Safiullin vs Petr Bar Biryukov Jun 06 $36 −$33 -90%
Libema Open, Qualification: Britt Du Pree vs Joanna Garland Jun 06 $50 −$14 -27%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $50 −$38 -77%
Libema Open, Qualification: Mackenzie McDonald vs Niels Visker Jun 06 $30 +$98 +323%
Libema Open, Qualification: Carol Young Suh Lee vs Lin Zhu Jun 06 $33 −$2 -7%
Heilbronn: Henri Squire vs Emilio Nava Jun 06 $17 −$17 -98%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Jun 06 $50 −$33 -66%
ITF Banja Luka: Mirjana Jovanovic vs Allegra Korpanec Davies Jun 06 $79 −$77 -98%
ITF Focsani: Daria Yesypchuk vs Maria Sara Popa Jun 06 $38 +$90 +234%
ITF Wuning: Yufei Ren vs Rina Saigo Jun 06 $49 −$48 -98%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 06 $50 −$49 -98%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) Jun 06 $60 −$59 -98%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5) Jun 06 $49 +$92 +188%
Connecticut Sun vs. Chicago Sky Jun 06 $49 −$31 -63%
ITF Cuiaba: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Nicolas Oliveira Jun 05 $74 −$45 -61%
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs RED Canids Academy (BO3) - Gamers Jun 05 $97 −$37 -38%
ITF Cuiaba: Gustavo Ribeiro De Almeida vs Carlos Maria Zarate Jun 05 $50 +$81 +162%
ITF Caserta: Laura Pigossi vs Anastasia Tikhonova Jun 04 $22 −$22 -98%
Valorant: Fennel vs QT DIG∞ (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage Jun 04 $2 −$2 -98%
ITF Brasilia: Thaisa Grana Pedretti vs Maria Jose Sanchez Uribe Jun 03 $10 +$18 +185%
ITF Cuiaba: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Samuel Alejandro Linde Palacios Jun 03 $3 −$3 -97%
ITF Cuiaba: Salvador Price vs Richard Gama Jun 03 $12 −$8 -73%
ITF Cuiaba: Enzo Kohlmann de Freitas vs Glauco Pinheiro Da Cruz Junior Jun 03 $21 −$10 -45%
ITF Brasilia: Gabriella Price vs Luiza Fullana Jun 03 $51 −$30 -59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs Wingman (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playof BUY ReThink 39¢ $153 29m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 18¢ $55 54m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 36¢ $113 1h
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Vera Zvonareva SELL Susan Bandecchi 100¢ $311 1h
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Vera Zvonareva BUY Susan Bandecchi 33¢ $105 2h
Dublin: Alexis Galarneau vs Francesco Maestrelli BUY Francesco Maestrelli 36¢ $126 3h
Dublin: Juan Pablo Ficovich vs Nicolas Mejia SELL Juan Pablo Ficovich 33¢ $86 3h
Dublin: Juan Pablo Ficovich vs Nicolas Mejia BUY Juan Pablo Ficovich 60¢ $162 5h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL TheMongolz 39¢ $158 6h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 44¢ $49 6h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 39¢ $120 6h
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari SELL Qinwen Zheng 99¢ $318 6h
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari BUY Qinwen Zheng 37¢ $121 8h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova SELL Tereza Valentova $21 8h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lin Zhu vs Sinja Kraus BUY Sinja Kraus 24¢ $97 9h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova BUY Tereza Valentova 37¢ $116 9h
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs Coalesce (BO3) - United21 Group SELL Coalesce 100¢ $197 9h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi SELL Dalma Galfi $17 9h
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs Coalesce (BO3) - United21 Group BUY Coalesce 27¢ $54 10h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi BUY Dalma Galfi 40¢ $102 11h
ITF kiseljak: Yaroslav Demin vs Andrey Chepelev BUY Yaroslav Demin 23¢ $40 2d
ITF Hurghada: Polina Iatcenko vs Anastasia Tikhonova SELL Polina Iatcenko 99¢ $40 2d
ITF Hurghada: Polina Iatcenko vs Anastasia Tikhonova BUY Polina Iatcenko 26¢ $11 2d
ITF Zagreb: Lucija Ciric Bagaric vs Dora Miskovic BUY Dora Miskovic 13¢ $27 5d
Libema Open: Lois Boisson vs Solana Sierra SELL Lois Boisson 18¢ $7 5d
Libema Open: Lois Boisson vs Solana Sierra SELL Lois Boisson 20¢ $20 5d
Libema Open: Lois Boisson vs Solana Sierra BUY Lois Boisson 19¢ $27 5d
ITF San Gregorio: Maria Toma vs Alessandra Mazzola SELL Maria Toma 12¢ $27 5d
ITF San Gregorio: Maria Toma vs Alessandra Mazzola BUY Maria Toma 21¢ $49 5d
ITF Wuning: Daria Zelinskaya vs Priska Madelyn Nugroho BUY Daria Zelinskaya 23¢ $67 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $182.69 · official $182.69 (match) · 1164 history records