Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:57:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x4232…ade6 sports 332 markets active 2d ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$33 (-4%) realized −$33 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate51%170W / 162L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day18.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$32
14 days−$17
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 55% +$15
sports 29% −$20
other 13% −$35
world 3% −$3
politics 0% $0
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -11.7% -20.1% 59% 51% -27.3%
≤30d 314 -8.3% -17.1% 52% 43% -14.9%
≤90d 332 -8.6% -17.3% 51% 43% -14.8%
all 332 -8.6% -17.3% 51% 43% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 43% -14.8%
10% -25.2% 36% -22.9%
15% -32.4% 27% -30.4%
20% -39.1% 20% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses170 / 162
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)332 / 332
History coverage32d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day18.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 332 Trades
no open positions (104 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $28 −$28 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 +$7 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $13 −$3 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$2 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 14? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +21%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 13? Jun 13 $3 +$1 +25%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? Jun 13 $1 +$3 +246%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +57%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 +$3 +96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 +$2 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$3 +81%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 10 $19 +$3 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 10? Jun 10 $3 $0 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 10 $3 −$2 -79%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 +$2 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 +$1 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C or below on June 10? Jun 10 $3 +$2 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 −$3 -50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $28 2d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 15? SELL Yes 99¢ $28 2d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 15? BUY Yes 74¢ $17 2d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 15? SELL Yes 47¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 15? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 15? BUY Yes 63¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 15? BUY Yes 66¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 15? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 15? BUY Yes 69¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 65¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? SELL Yes 98¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? SELL Yes 99¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 15? SELL Yes 96¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 15? BUY Yes 78¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? BUY Yes 77¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 15? SELL Yes 99¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 15? SELL Yes 99¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 15? SELL Yes 97¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 68¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 79¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? BUY Yes 85¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 75¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 91¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 85¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 67¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 67¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 14? SELL Yes 99¢ $4 3d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 14? BUY Yes 81¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 636 history records