Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:32:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
42 0x4238…3734 sports 245 markets active 2h ago coverage 151d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$859 (+13%) realized +$859 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate45%108W / 134L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$96est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$130now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$66
7 days+$276
14 days+$90
30 days+$257
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$790
other 2% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +63.2% +47.6% 67% 67% +43.4%
≤30d 71 +12.9% +2.2% 44% 44% -0.2%
≤90d 175 +6.1% -4.0% 41% 41% -3.3%
all 242 +12.6% +1.9% 45% 44% +0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.9% 44% +0.8%
10% -7.9% 43% -8.9%
15% -16.8% 43% -17.7%
20% -24.9% 39% -25.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$26 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$130
Realized+$859
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses108 / 134
Est. fees paid−$96
Open positions3
Markets (closed)242 / 245
History coverage151d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 242 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs 1WIN 43¢ 42¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs G2 24¢ 24¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+2%)
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Team Bald 35¢ 34¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Jun 19 $41 −$41 -100%
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $41 +$65 +158%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 P Jun 18 $20 +$42 +206%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 +$49 +97%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $52 +$47 +91%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 13 $41 −$41 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $41 +$65 +158%
Counter-Strike: struggletony vs MASONIC (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group Jun 12 $41 +$59 +146%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $41 +$52 +129%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $31 +$53 +172%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $33 −$33 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: Five Fears vs Shopify Rebellion (BO1) - North Ameri Jun 11 $41 +$48 +119%
Game Handicap: HRTS (-1.5) vs Forsaken (+1.5) Jun 11 $41 +$59 +146%
Game Handicap: ME (-1.5) vs UCAM Esports Club (+1.5) Jun 11 $41 −$41 -100%
Game Handicap: GAL (-1.5) vs WLGaming Esports (+1.5) Jun 11 $50 −$50 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Bigetron by Vitality vs EVOS - Game 4 Winner Jun 10 $41 −$41 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $50 −$50 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: G2 Esports vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League S Jun 10 $41 −$41 -100%
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs BOMBA Team (BO3) - EMEA Masters Play-In Jun 10 $41 −$41 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $41 +$50 +124%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $31 −$31 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 9z (-3.5) vs TYLOO (+3.5) Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 07 $41 −$41 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $41 −$41 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $41 +$70 +172%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 07 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $30 +$36 +119%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $41 −$41 -100%
Map Handicap: QUA (-1.5) vs ReThink (+1.5) Jun 06 $41 −$41 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 06 $41 +$62 +152%
Map Handicap: FLY (-1.5) vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (+1.5) Jun 04 $41 +$43 +105%
Counter-Strike: Gaimin Gladiators vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 03 $41 −$41 -100%
Map Handicap: HERO (-1.5) vs Gaimin Gladiators (+1.5) Jun 03 $41 −$41 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 03 $51 +$49 +97%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas (BO5) - Circuit Jun 02 $41 −$41 -100%
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs Galorys (BO3) - Circuit X Base Recife Playoff Jun 01 $41 +$97 +238%
LoL: CCG Esports vs Conviction (BO5) - North American Challengers Leag May 30 $41 −$41 -100%
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs Fluxo (BO3) - Circuit X Base Recife Gr May 29 $41 −$41 -100%
Counter-Strike: BESTIA vs Galorys (BO3) - Circuit X Base Recife Group May 28 $26 +$99 +388%
Counter-Strike: BESTIA vs Galorys - Map 2 Winner May 28 $9 +$25 +276%
Map Handicap: 9z (-1.5) vs Heroic (+1.5) May 28 $14 −$14 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $41 −$41 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $41 −$41 -100%
Map Handicap: G1 (-1.5) vs HEROIC Academy (+1.5) May 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CIS LAN Championship Group May 26 $41 +$77 +188%
Counter-Strike: Rune Eaters vs Bebop (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champio May 26 $41 +$44 +109%
Game Handicap: NS.EA (-1.5) vs DN SOOPers Challengers (+1.5) May 26 $41 −$41 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO3) - LCK Ch May 26 $33 +$71 +216%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 24¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 24¢ $31 1h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY 1WIN 43¢ $20 2h
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qua BUY Team Bald 35¢ $31 2h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY 1WIN 43¢ $41 3h
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN - Map 1 Winner BUY OXEN 38¢ $41 23h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY PlayTime 40¢ $41 25h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 P BUY Walczaki 32¢ $20 27h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $51 4d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 35¢ $41 5d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $11 5d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $5 5d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $30 5d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: struggletony vs MASONIC (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group BUY MASONIC 40¢ $41 6d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 45¢ $3 7d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 44¢ $31 7d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 43¢ $41 7d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $41 7d
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D BUY Anubis Gaming 23¢ $41 7d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 36¢ $31 7d
Rainbow Six Siege: Five Fears vs Shopify Rebellion (BO1) - North Ameri BUY Shopify Rebellion 45¢ $41 7d
Game Handicap: ME (-1.5) vs UCAM Esports Club (+1.5) BUY Misa Esports 50¢ $41 8d
Game Handicap: HRTS (-1.5) vs Forsaken (+1.5) BUY Team Heretics Academy 40¢ $41 8d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $50 8d
Game Handicap: GAL (-1.5) vs WLGaming Esports (+1.5) BUY WLGaming Esports 26¢ $50 9d
Rainbow Six Siege: G2 Esports vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League S BUY Heretics 20¢ $41 9d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Bigetron by Vitality vs EVOS - Game 4 Winner BUY EVOS 49¢ $41 9d
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs BOMBA Team (BO3) - EMEA Masters Play-In BUY Frites Esports Club 50¢ $10 10d
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs BOMBA Team (BO3) - EMEA Masters Play-In BUY Frites Esports Club 50¢ $30 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $129.70 · official $129.71 (match) · 615 history records