Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:36:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x4238…1d48 crypto 139 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$5 (-3%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate86%120W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day25.6pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$4
other 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 139 -3.0% -12.2% 86% 31% -12.3%
≤30d 139 -3.0% -12.2% 86% 31% -12.3%
≤90d 139 -3.0% -12.2% 86% 31% -12.3%
all 139 -3.0% -12.2% 86% 31% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.2% 31% -12.3%
10% ← realistic here -20.6% 8% -20.7%
15% -28.3% 3% -28.4%
20% -35.3% 1% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses120 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)139 / 139
History coverage6d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day25.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 139 Trades
no open positions (18 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 268 history records