Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:30:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
42 0x423d…c725 crypto 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 112d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$262 (+72%) realized +$267 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +56% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +41% what you keep after slip
Net edge+41%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%6W / 10L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$157now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 112d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 45% +$280
other 39% −$4
crypto 15% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+40.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +137.7% +115.1% 75% 75% +171.4%
≤30d 4 +137.7% +115.1% 75% 75% +171.4%
≤90d 4 +137.7% +115.1% 75% 75% +171.4%
all 16 +55.6% +40.8% 38% 38% +111.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +40.8% 38% +111.5%
10% +27.3% 38% +91.3%
15% +15.0% 38% +72.8%
20% +3.8% 38% +55.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +200% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +56% · $-wt +134% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +61% → late +50% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$7 · ×7.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.72 per $1 lost it wins $4.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$157
Realized+$267
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses6 / 10
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions5
Markets (closed)16 / 21
History coverage112d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 21¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 16¢ $30 $26 −$4 (-13%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Over 57¢ 56¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $27 −$26 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $55 +$242 +437%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $23 +$22 +95%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $36 +$43 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Feb 26 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Feb 26 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Feb 26 $8 +$12 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Feb 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Feb 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Feb 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Feb 26 $3 +$2 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Feb 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Feb 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Feb 26 $1 +$9 +900%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Feb 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Feb 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $22 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $30 1h
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $31 1h
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 1h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $27 19h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $34 19h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $198 19h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $65 19h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL DR Congo 99¢ $45 19h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 50¢ $23 29h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $37 29h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $18 29h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 83¢ $78 35h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $36 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $3 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $0 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $3 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $0 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $8 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $3 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $5 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 112d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $157.34 · official $157.35 (match) · 39 history records