Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:09:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
42 0x423e…31ef other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$625 (-18%) realized −$625 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -62% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -66% what you keep after slip
Net edge-66%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%1W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$497per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,170
7 days−$1,172
14 days−$1,172
30 days−$1,112
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 82% −$790
other 18% −$322
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-65.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -74.1% -76.5% 0% 0% -46.2%
≤30d 7 -62.0% -65.7% 14% 0% -38.4%
≤90d 7 -62.0% -65.7% 14% 0% -38.4%
all 7 -62.0% -65.7% 14% 0% -38.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -65.7% 0% -38.4%
10% -68.9% 0% -44.3%
15% -71.9% 0% -49.7%
20% -74.7% 0% -54.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -62% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$195 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$625
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses1 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage23d
Avg bet$497
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $226 −$148 -65%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $388 −$161 -42%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 21 $2,265 −$849 -38%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 02 $588 +$60 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 18 history records