Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T12:42:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
42 0x423f…eedc sports 538 markets active 2h ago coverage 253d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$964 (-1%) realized −$985 · open +$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%270W / 267L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$171per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Fees−$540est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$139now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$353
14 days−$1,291
30 days−$1,338
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$1,634
other 4% +$676
politics 0% −$454
world 0% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -42.4% -47.9% 33% 33% -35.0%
≤30d 41 -33.6% -39.9% 39% 39% -29.2%
≤90d 214 -19.6% -27.3% 43% 42% -17.3%
all 537 -7.0% -15.8% 50% 50% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 50% -10.4%
10% -23.9% 49% -18.9%
15% -31.2% 44% -26.8%
20% -38.0% 34% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$118 vs −$125 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

253d coverage
Net worth$139
Realized−$985
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses270 / 267
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$540
Open positions1
Markets (closed)537 / 538
History coverage253d
Avg bet$171
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 537 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Virtus.pro 64¢ 76¢ $118 $139 +$21 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 198 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 25 $11 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 24 $108 −$108 -100%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 23 $101 +$136 +134%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $91 −$90 -98%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $62 +$21 +33%
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $78 −$77 -100%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Jun 22 $141 +$99 +70%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $144 −$142 -99%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $125 −$124 -99%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C Jun 22 $122 −$21 -17%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $344 −$155 -45%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) Jun 21 $222 +$120 +54%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $229 −$227 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $115 +$57 +50%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 20 $237 −$236 -100%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $126 −$125 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $223 −$220 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $288 −$285 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $136 +$112 +82%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $71 −$70 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $276 +$195 +70%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $60 −$18 -31%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $152 −$150 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $231 +$154 +67%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $72 −$71 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $255 −$253 -99%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $399 +$150 +38%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $147 −$145 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $190 +$150 +79%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 13 $267 −$265 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $178 +$124 +70%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $41 −$40 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $152 +$83 +55%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $116 +$84 +72%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $253 +$126 +50%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $84 −$84 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $154 +$87 +56%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 11 $207 +$152 +73%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 03 $219 −$216 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P May 25 $101 +$71 +70%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 23 $53 −$52 -98%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner May 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs MIBR (+1.5) May 23 $253 −$250 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Pla May 23 $237 +$113 +48%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere - Map 3 Winner May 17 $93 −$91 -98%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner May 17 $110 −$20 -18%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-2.5) vs GamerLegion (+2.5) May 17 $246 −$246 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 May 17 $494 −$490 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY Virtus.pro 64¢ $119 1h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY Virtus.pro 21¢ $11 2d
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY GamerLegion 54¢ $54 3d
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY GamerLegion 54¢ $27 3d
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY GamerLegion 54¢ $27 3d
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe BUY Nigma Galaxy 42¢ $101 4d
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY L1ga Team 47¢ $48 5d
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner SELL L1ga Team 100¢ $83 5d
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY L1ga Team 43¢ $44 5d
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner BUY L1ga Team 75¢ $62 5d
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY Execration 35¢ $14 5d
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY Execration 39¢ $29 5d
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY Execration 39¢ $1 5d
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY Execration 39¢ $2 5d
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY Execration 39¢ $1 5d
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY Execration 39¢ $7 5d
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY Execration 39¢ $2 5d
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY Execration 39¢ $2 5d
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY Execration 39¢ $20 5d
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed SELL OG 100¢ $240 5d
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 2 Winner BUY OG 36¢ $1 6d
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 2 Winner BUY OG 36¢ $2 6d
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 2 Winner BUY OG 36¢ $3 6d
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 2 Winner BUY OG 36¢ $1 6d
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 2 Winner BUY OG 36¢ $12 6d
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 2 Winner BUY OG 62¢ $125 6d
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 62¢ $125 6d
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C SELL Grind Back 100¢ $241 6d
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed BUY OG 58¢ $141 6d
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C BUY GLYPH 13¢ $4 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $138.89 · official $138.89 (match) · 2449 history records